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Mesoscale Discussion 307
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0307
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0515 PM CDT WED MAR 21 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AND ERN WI...NRN IL...FAR WRN LOWER MI
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 212215Z - 220015Z
   
   THREAT FOR SEVERE HAIL WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE EVENING
   HOURS...AND A WW COULD BE REQUIRED.
   
   INITIAL MCS HAS MOVED FROM IA INTO NRN IL AND IS BEING MAINTAINED BY
   STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK
   UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ADDITIONAL COMPLEX OF STORMS IS CURRENTLY
   FORMING OVER WRN WI ALONG WARM FRONT. STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND
   FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR PROFILES WILL FAVOR ELEVATED STORMS WITH A FEW
   SUPERCELLS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. ZONE OF STRONGEST LIFT WILL
   EVENTUALLY SHIFT INTO NRN MI LATER THIS EVENING.
   
   OVER NRN IL/IN AND SWRN MI...EFFECTIVE INFLOW BASE FOR STORMS IS
   NEAR THE SURFACE. THUS...THERE MAY BE INCREASED WIND DAMAGE
   POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY WITH MORE ORGANIZED LINES. AN ISOLATED...BRIEF
   TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH ANY CELL THAT TRACKS ALONG THE WARM
   FRONT.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 03/21/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...APX...IWX...GRR...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...
   
   44688999 44978698 44678617 44048552 43388532 42808540
   41848624 41668731 41738818 42258921 43209031 43779131
   44249127 
   
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