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Mesoscale Discussion 477
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0477
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0534 AM CDT FRI APR 13 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WRN/NW TX...TX/OK PNHDLS...WRN AND CNTRL
   OK
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 132...
   
   VALID 131034Z - 131200Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 132
   CONTINUES.  SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO WHETHER A NEW WW WILL BE
   NEEDED AT 12Z...BUT TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.
   
   LATEST RUC GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT 90-100 KT CORE OF A CYCLONIC 500
   MB JET STREAK IS NOW PROGRESSING ACROSS NORTHERN SONORA/CHIHUAHUA. 
   THIS IS SUPPORTED BY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AND MOST MODEL GUIDANCE
   INDICATES THAT THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN NOSING INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS
   BY THE 12-15Z TIME FRAME.  AS THIS OCCURS...DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW
   FIELD IN ITS LEFT EXIT REGION WILL OVERSPREAD THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA
   PANHANDLE REGION AND THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS.  THIS IS EXPECTED TO
   MAINTAIN VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF THE TEXAS
   PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA...WHERE CAPE FOR PARCELS BASED IN
   ELEVATED MOIST LAYER RETURNING ABOVE DEVELOPING SURFACE FRONT IS
   INCREASING INTO THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE.  AN EXPANDING CONVECTIVE
   CLUSTER APPEARS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH PERSISTENT
   HEAVY RAINFALL BECOMING AN INCREASING THREAT...IN ADDITION TO A
   CONTINUING RISK FOR MOSTLY MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.
   
   UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING PROSPECTS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
   TO THE SOUTH OF SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE...ROUGHLY SOUTHEAST OF A LAWTON
   OK/LUBBOCK TX LINE.  IT APPEARS THAT VEERING LOW-LEVEL FLOW MAY
   CONTRIBUTE TO A ZONE OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SOUTH OF
   CHILDRESS INTO THE ABILENE AREA...WHERE ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE 12-15Z TIME FRAME.  IF THIS
   OCCURS...HODOGRAPHS WILL BE MORE THAN SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. 
   BUT...THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING...STORMS PROBABLY WILL BE ROOTED
   ABOVE A COOLER/DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY
   SEVERE THREAT.
   
   ..KERR.. 04/13/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...
   
   36090176 36780091 36950001 36689855 36019793 34879821
   34409849 33969850 32919806 32269846 32109960 32860015
   33490115 34200186 35330189 
   
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