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Mesoscale Discussion 686 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0686
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0507 PM CDT FRI MAY 04 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN CO INTO WESTERN KS/SOUTHWEST NEB
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 042207Z - 042330Z
A SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH EARLY EVENING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL CO INTO NORTHWEST KS AND
SOUTHWEST NEB. A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS FEATURES 999 MB SURFACE LOW IN FAR SOUTHEAST
CO ALONG/SOUTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY BETWEEN LA JUNTA AND
SPRINGFIELD...WITH QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ANGLING FROM EAST CENTRAL
CO INTO NORTHWEST KS. SATELLITE TRENDS OVER THE PAST HOUR REVEALS CU
FIELD CONTINUING TO DEEPEN/INCREASE FROM THE CO FOOTHILLS EASTWARD
INTO THE WELL-MIXED AIRMASS ACROSS SOUTHEAST CO...INCLUDING AREAS
EAST/NORTHEAST OF TRINIDAD AS OF 22Z. WITH TIME...AS LARGE SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASES/OVERSPREADS THE REGION...STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL CO
EAST/NORTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN KS AND FAR SOUTHWEST NEB.
ALTHOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS/INSTABILITY IS LIMITED /ESPECIALLY
WITH WEST EXTENT INTO CO/...A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WILL
FAVOR THE EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS ALONG/NORTH OF THE
SURFACE FRONT. IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL...A TORNADO THREAT WOULD
LIKELY INCREASE AS STORMS EVOLVE INTO A MORE MOISTURE-RICH/HIGHER
HELICITY ENVIRONMENT ACROSS FAR EAST CENTRAL CO AND NORTHWEST
KS/SOUTHWEST NEB THIS EVENING.
..GUYER.. 05/04/2007
ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...
40880144 40410087 39860063 39130069 38270199 37370287
38090404 39640401 40330327
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