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Mesoscale Discussion 686
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0686
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0507 PM CDT FRI MAY 04 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN CO INTO WESTERN KS/SOUTHWEST NEB
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 042207Z - 042330Z
   
   A SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH EARLY EVENING ACROSS
   PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL CO INTO NORTHWEST KS AND
   SOUTHWEST NEB. A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.
   
   LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS FEATURES 999 MB SURFACE LOW IN FAR SOUTHEAST
   CO ALONG/SOUTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY BETWEEN LA JUNTA AND
   SPRINGFIELD...WITH QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ANGLING FROM EAST CENTRAL
   CO INTO NORTHWEST KS. SATELLITE TRENDS OVER THE PAST HOUR REVEALS CU
   FIELD CONTINUING TO DEEPEN/INCREASE FROM THE CO FOOTHILLS EASTWARD
   INTO THE WELL-MIXED AIRMASS ACROSS SOUTHEAST CO...INCLUDING AREAS
   EAST/NORTHEAST OF TRINIDAD AS OF 22Z. WITH TIME...AS LARGE SCALE
   FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASES/OVERSPREADS THE REGION...STORMS ARE
   EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL CO
   EAST/NORTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN KS AND FAR SOUTHWEST NEB. 
   
   ALTHOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS/INSTABILITY IS LIMITED /ESPECIALLY
   WITH WEST EXTENT INTO CO/...A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WILL
   FAVOR THE EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS ALONG/NORTH OF THE
   SURFACE FRONT. IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL...A TORNADO THREAT WOULD
   LIKELY INCREASE AS STORMS EVOLVE INTO A MORE MOISTURE-RICH/HIGHER
   HELICITY ENVIRONMENT ACROSS FAR EAST CENTRAL CO AND NORTHWEST
   KS/SOUTHWEST NEB THIS EVENING.
   
   ..GUYER.. 05/04/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...
   
   40880144 40410087 39860063 39130069 38270199 37370287
   38090404 39640401 40330327 
   
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