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Mesoscale Discussion 723
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0723
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1141 AM CDT SUN MAY 06 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NW TX AND OK INTO KS
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 243...
   
   VALID 061641Z - 061815Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 243 CONTINUES.
   
   STRONGER MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH AMPLIFIED UPPER
   TROUGH IS SPREADING SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU INTO THE
   MEXICAN PLATEAU.  BUT...MODELS ARE SUGGESTIVE THAT ANOTHER
   SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE IS BEGINNING TO LIFT NORTH NORTHEAST OF THE
   SOUTHERN ROCKIES...AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY LATEST WATER VAPOR
   IMAGERY.  AS UPPER RIDGING REMAINS STRONG OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
   VALLEY/UPPER MIDWEST...STRONGER DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW APPEARS TO BE
   COMING FOCUSED ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL INTO EAST CENTRAL
   KANSAS.  THIS FORCING...IN CONJUNCTION WITH MOIST CONFLUENT
   LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT FURTHER EXPANSION OF A
   MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM NOW DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS
   INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA.
   
   THE BULK OF THIS DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN BASED IN MOIST MODERATELY
   UNSTABLE INFLOW WITH CAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG...ABOVE RAIN COOLED
   OUTFLOW.  BUT..EVAPORATIVE COOLING NEAR HEAVIER RAIN CORES MAY
   SUPPORT OCCASIONAL DOWNBURSTS...AND LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL IN
   ENVIRONMENT WITH SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR UPDRAFT
   ROTATION...PARTICULARLY ON MORE INTENSE SOUTHERN FLANK OF EVOLVING
   SYSTEM.  HOWEVER...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH TORRENTIAL
   DOWN POURS...AND SLOW MOVING/TRAINING CONVECTION MAY BE THE PRIMARY
   THREAT ALONG THE KANSAS TURNPIKE SOUTHWARD THROUGH WICHITA INTO
   PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA.
   
   MEANWHILE...TO THE SOUTH OF CONGLOMERATE OUTFLOW...MID-LEVEL
   INHIBITION IS NOT STRONG...BUT TENDENCY FOR WARMING ALOFT MAY AT
   LEAST SLOW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.  HOWEVER...DAYTIME HEATING OF A
   MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS WITH DEW POINTS NEAR 70F...AND WEAK
   WARM  ADVECTION...COULD STILL SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
   ACTIVITY BY THE 18-20Z TIME FRAME...ACROSS MUCH OF
   SOUTHWESTERN/CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR
   ACROSS THIS REGION IS SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...AND LARGE
   LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS BENEATH 40 KT SOUTHERLY 850 FLOW WILL BE
   INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR POSSIBLE TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE
   PEAK HEATING HOURS.
   
   ..KERR.. 05/06/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...LUB...AMA...
   
   35840005 36689934 37409903 38059916 39199816 39399719
   39149610 38579514 38079477 37529430 37079461 36469470
   35769482 35339577 35139630 34879720 34239834 34219924
   34490004 
   
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