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Mesoscale Discussion 726
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0726
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0147 PM CDT SUN MAY 06 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX PNHDL/WRN OK...SWD THRU NW/W CNTRL TX
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 243...
   
   VALID 061847Z - 061945Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 243 CONTINUES.
   
   NEW WW 246 WILL REPLACE WW 243.
   
   SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS UNDERWAY IN THE VICINITY OF DRY
   LINE WEST OF CHILDRESS SOUTHWARD WEST OF SAN ANGELO TOWARD THE BIG
   BEND REGION.  THIS IS OCCURRING WHERE INHIBITION IS WEAKEST ON THE
   EASTERN FRINGE OF 700MB THERMAL GRADIENT...WHICH HAS STALLED ACROSS
   THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING UPSTREAM UPPER
   FLOW PATTERN.  HOWEVER...RUC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MID-LEVEL FLOW
   IS SLOWLY VEERING FROM SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE TEXAS
   PANHANDLE REGION...LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO NEXT IMPULSE LIFTING OUT OF
   THE BASE OF AMPLIFIED WESTERN UPPER TROUGH...TOWARD THE CENTRAL HIGH
   PLAINS.
   
   AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO STEEPEN AND DRY LINE SHARPENS
   WITH ADDITIONAL HEATING THIS AFTERNOON...ENVIRONMENT WITH MIXED
   LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
   SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS.  SOUTH/EAST OF THE LUBBOCK AREA... DEEP
   LAYER SHEAR BECOMES MARGINAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. 
   BUT...SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF THE CHILDRESS AREA THROUGH THE EASTERN
   TEXAS PANHANDLE/WESTERN OKLAHOMA...STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS
   SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS...WITH RISK OF VERY LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING
   WIND GUSTS.  LOW-LEVEL SHEAR DOES NOT APPEAR PARTICULARLY
   STRONG...BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE... PARTICULARLY NEAR
   OUTFLOW/DRY LINE INTERSECTION IN THE VICINITY OF CHILDRESS.
   
   ..KERR.. 05/06/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OUN...EWX...DDC...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...
   
   31159999 30290074 29950177 31230100 32310078 33000134
   33790097 35150065 36520038 36870033 37389992 36729869
   35899909 34759926 32669971 
   
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