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Mesoscale Discussion 1140
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1140
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0734 PM CDT WED JUN 13 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN/SCENTRAL KS...WRN/CENTRAL OK AND ERN TX
   PANHANDLE
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 394...
   
   VALID 140034Z - 140230Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 394
   CONTINUES.
   
   THE SVR THREAT WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF WRN/CENTRAL OK PORTION OF
   WW 394 FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE SVR THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO
   DIMINISH OVER THE REMAINING PORTIONS OF WW 394 IN SWRN KS AS
   CONVECTIVE LINE MOVES EWD AND WEAKENS WHILE ENCOUNTERING A MORE
   STABLE AIRMASS OVER SCENTRAL KS.
   
   LATEST OKLAHOMA MESONET AND RADAR IMAGERY FROM KTLX AND KVNX SHOWED
   AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM WRN MAJOR COUNTY SEWD TO SRN
   GRADY COUNTY. AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL OVER MAJOR COUNTY WITH A HISTORY
   OF PRODUCING TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL
   ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADOES OVER THE NEXT HOUR AS IT REMAINS ANCHORED
   TO THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHILE ENCOUNTERING MODERATE LOW LEVEL SHEAR
   /150 M2/S2 OF 0-1 KM SRH/ PER MODIFIED VICI PROFILER DATA.
   HOWEVER...A WELL ESTABLISHED OUTFLOW FROM TSTMS OVER FAR NWRN
   OK/SWRN KS /PER RADAR AND SFC ANALYSIS/ SHOULD UNDERCUT THE MAJOR
   COUNTY SUPERCELL AND LIMIT THE TORNADO THREAT IN THAT AREA BY 02Z.
   ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TSTMS OVER WCENTRAL/SWRN OK THAT EARLIER
   DEVELOPED ALONG THE DRYLINE WILL MOVE NEWD AND POSE A THREAT FOR
   DMGG WINDS/LARGE HAIL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THEY ENCOUNTER A
   VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR /PER THE 00Z OUN
   SOUNDING/. LOWER DEWPTS INITIALLY AHEAD OF THESE SVR TSTMS WILL
   CONTINUE TO LIMIT ANY TORNADO THREAT. HOWEVER SINCE THESE TSTMS ARE
   ALREADY ROTATING AT MID LEVELS...THEY MAY BEGIN TO POSE AN ISOLATED
   TORNADO THREAT AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND
   ENCOUNTER THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL SHEAR/HIGHER DEWPTS /PER THE 00Z
   OUN SOUNDING/. ADDITIONAL SVR TSTMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ALONG THE
   OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AS NOTED BY RECENT CELL DEVELOPMENT OVER CANADIAN
   COUNTY.
   
   FURTHER WEST...ISOLATED SVR WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
   ERN TX PANHANDLE AND FAR WCENTRAL/SWRN OK AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW AND
   ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT/DRYLINE INTERSECTION...GIVEN THE PRESENCE
   OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES /PER THE 00Z AMA SOUNDING/.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 06/14/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...
   
   36490058 35040054 34860039 34679982 34559864 34629777
   34639705 34919688 35609705 36499752 36979779 37099827
   37809850 38199865 37939926 37069897 36530019 
   
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