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Mesoscale Discussion 521
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0521
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1220 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2008
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SRN/SERN OK INTO NRN/CENTRAL TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 311720Z - 311815Z
   
   WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR
   SRN/SERN OK INTO NRN AND PARTS OF CENTRAL TX.
   
   LATE MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED DRY LINE MIXING EWD WITH
   INCREASING CONVERGENCE NOTED THROUGH A DEEP LAYER PER OBJECTIVE
   ANALYSES FROM SWRN OK SWD THROUGH WRN N TX /W OF SPS/ TO ABI TO TX
   BIG BEND REGION.  SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF A GRAVITY WAVE...WHICH
   WAS CURRENTLY MOVING ESEWD THROUGH ERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL TX...HAD
   RESULTED IN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WWD ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/WRN TX. 
   THIS HAS RESULTED IN STRONG SURFACE HEATING WITHIN A MOIST AIR MASS.
   THUS...FURTHER DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED AS MLCAPE VALUES INCREASE
   TO GREATER THAN 1500 J/KG.
   
   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
   CURRENTLY MOVING INTO FAR ERN NM/W TX...WITH MID TO UPPER LEVEL
   WSWLY FLOW ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS STRENGTHENING WITH APPROACH OF THIS
   TROUGH.  ASCENT WITH THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO AID IN TSTM
   DEVELOPMENT...WITH VISIBLE IMAGERY ALREADY SHOWING CU FORMATION IN
   THE VICINITY OF BWD AND NWD ALONG DRY LINE.  MODERATE INSTABILITY
   AND INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES WILL SUPPORT DISCRETE
   SUPERCELLS.
   
   ..PETERS.. 03/31/2008
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...
   
   34699506 33149559 32369657 31419759 30869893 31260015
   32879932 34219872 34219872 34849867 34319817 34319705 
   
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