MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0522
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0109 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2008
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MO...WRN IL...FAR SERN IA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 311809Z - 312015Z
   
   CONDITIONS ARE BEING MONITORED OVER NRN MO...SERN IA AND WRN IL FOR
   AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT. A TORNADO WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED.
   
   LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED LOW OVER NWRN MO WITH WARM FRONT
   EXTENDING NEWD INTO NRN IL. A COMPLEX SURFACE PATTERN WAS IN PLACE
   OVER THE WARM SECTOR...WITH RELATIVELY STABLE OUTFLOW ACROSS MUCH OF
   CENTRAL MO FROM ONGOING CONVECTION. AN UPPER JET MAX AND DRY SLOT
   WAS SPREADING NEWD ALONG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS ERN KS AND WRN MO AT
   18Z...WITH CLEARING OCCURRING. TO THE E...CIRRUS STILL HAMPERED
   HEATING ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S EXTENDED FROM NERN KS
   ACROSS NRN MO INTO WRN IL.
   
   AREA WIND PROFILERS SHOW LARGE HODOGRAPHS AND SRH VALUES WHICH ARE
   QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES. MODIFIED FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS INDICATE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S ALONG WITH A
   DEWPOINT IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 WOULD YIELD SURFACE BASED
   INSTABILITY AND A TORNADO THREAT. SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 18Z SHOWED A
   POCKET OF TEMPERATURES NEAR 70 OVER NWRN MO...ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS
   INCREASING INTO THE UPPER 50S.
   
   GIVEN FAVORABLE LARGE AND MESOSCALE FORCING AND EXTREME SHEAR
   PROFILES...ANY STORM THAT FORMS OVER NWRN MO AND MOVES NEWD WILL
   HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE TORNADOES AS WELL AS LARGE HAIL.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 03/31/2008
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...
   
   41419071 41488972 40808939 40008960 39699051 39609187
   39289308 38769383 38759419 39099447 39359470 39789475
   40119466 40759386