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Mesoscale Discussion 857
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0857
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1055 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2008
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN KS...ERN OK...WRN MO...NW AR
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 101555Z - 101800Z
   
   AHEAD OF AN INTENSIFYING POLAR IMPULSE...NOW STILL DIGGING ACROSS
   THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...A LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL RIDGE IS IN
   THE PROCESS OF SHIFTING EAST OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE MIDDLE
   MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  AS THIS OCCURS...MODELS SUGGEST THIS RIDGING
   WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN...BUT ASSOCIATED INHIBITION COULD STILL SLOW
   CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN ZONE OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC
   ASCENT ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU. 
   LATEST RUC GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS POISED TO
   MAKE A RAPID RETURN TO REGION BETWEEN NOW AND 20-21Z.  THIS PROBABLY
   WILL OCCUR MORE RAPIDLY ABOVE A RETREATING SURFACE WARM FRONT...THAN
   IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...WHICH MAY REMAIN SLOWER TO DESTABILIZE. 
   HOWEVER...INCREASING ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITHIN THE PRESENCE OF
   STRONG CLOUD BEARING LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF
   AN INCREASING RISK FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL
   BETWEEN 18-21Z.  IT IS POSSIBLE THAT BOUNDARY LAYER WARM/MOISTENING
   COULD BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN CLOSER
   PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE SHORTLY THEREAFTER.  IF THIS
   OCCURS...LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL FAVOR POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES.
   
   ..KERR.. 05/10/2008
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...
   
   33779443 34939552 37369544 38539550 39039528 39039428
   38339342 36569270 35389347 
   
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