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Mesoscale Discussion 862
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0862
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0223 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2008
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AR...NRN LA...WRN MS
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 292...
   
   VALID 101923Z - 102100Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 292 CONTINUES.
   
   WW WILL BE REISSUED FOR ESSENTIALLY THE SAME AREA BY 21Z.
   
   INITIAL FORCING...PERHAPS WITH WEAK SUBTROPICAL IMPULSE...NOW
   APPEARS TO BE SHIFTING ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI INTO THE UPPER
   TENNESSEE VALLEY.  BUT...LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM LAYER AND
   BROADER SCALE SUBSIDENCE BENEATH FLAT LARGE-SCALE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
   HAS SUPPRESSED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE WATCH AREA TO THIS
   POINT.  HOWEVER...THE VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER NEAR A SLOWLY
   WEAKENING WARM FRONTAL ZONE CONTINUES TO WARM WITH INSOLATION.  AND
   ...MIXED LAYER CAPE HAS INCREASED TO 2000-3000 J/KG.  
   
   THE MAIN POLAR IMPULSE IS JUST NOW DIGGING THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH
   PLAINS.  BUT...HEIGHT FALLS AS FAR EAST AS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
   VALLEY ALREADY APPEAR UNDERWAY.  CONVECTIVE INITIATION WITHIN A
   FAVORABLY UNSTABLE AND SHEARED ENVIRONMENT FOR SUPERCELLS IS STILL
   EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON...PROBABLY AS EARLY AS 21-22Z ACROSS
   SOUTHERN ARKANSAS.
   
   ..KERR.. 05/10/2008
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...
   
   35239429 34929325 34659241 34469179 34199092 33838992
   33338989 32328989 31518995 31969122 32479289 32979434
   34099430 34729430 
   
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