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Mesoscale Discussion 867
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0867
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0513 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2008
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS/OK...NRN AR...CNTRL/SRN MO
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 293...
   
   VALID 102213Z - 110015Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 293 CONTINUES.
   
   UPR TROUGH AND ASSOCD LARGE SCALE ASCENT WAS BEGINNING TO SPREAD EWD
   INTO ERN OK/KS LATE THIS AFTN WITH A SUBSEQUENT INCREASE IN TSTMS
   ALONG THE COLD FRONT/DRYLINE FROM ERN KS SWD INTO ERN OK.  LATEST
   MESOANALYSIS PLACES AN OUTFLOW ENHANCED WARM FRONT FROM N OF CHANUTE
   KS SEWD INTO NCNTRL AR.  S OF THIS FRONT THE AIR MASS HAS RECOVERED
   FROM EARLIER ACTIVITY WITH MLCAPES OF 1500-2000 J/KG OWING TO UPR
   60S DEW POINTS RIDING NWD BENEATH 7-7.5 DEG C/KM H7-H5 LAPSE RATES. 
   WITH STRONGEST PRESSURE FALLS INTO SCNTRL MO...THE DEVELOPING LOW
   OVER ECNTRL KS SHOULD MOVE INTO THE MO OZARKS EARLY THIS EVENING
   WITH SOME RECOVERY OF THE AIR MASS INTO SCNTRL MO.  
   
   THROUGH MID-EVENING...EXPECT THAT THE HIGHEST TORNADO THREAT WILL
   REMAIN ALONG/S OF THE WARM FRONT IN ERN OK...EXTREME SWRN/SCNTRL MO
   AND NRN AR.  OTHERWISE...ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ALONG THE PRIMARY COLD
   FRONT AND WITHIN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME FARTHER E AND N INTO
   ECNTRL/SERN MO WILL LIKELY GIVE ISOLD LARGE HAIL.  IF THE AIR MASS
   CAN FULLY RECOVER DOWNSTREAM INTO THE REMAINDER OF SRN MO...ACTIVITY
   DEVELOPING ALONG THE KS/MO BORDER MAY BEGIN MOVING INTO AREAS JUST E
   OF THE CURRENT TORNADO WATCH AROUND 01-02Z.
   
   ..RACY.. 05/10/2008
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...
   
   38479654 39329560 39429384 38769104 38709097 37799058
   36999080 36949091 36059192 35419292 35349426 35609599
   36599669 37649677 
   
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