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Mesoscale Discussion 874
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0874
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0921 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2008
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN AR...WRN/MIDDLE TN...NRN AL...NRN MS
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 298...300...
   
   VALID 110221Z - 110345Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 298...300...CONTINUES.
   
   LATEST MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SE FROM THE
   MID-SOUTH INTO THE TN VLY AT 02Z.  SOUTH OF THE FRONT...THE BOUNDARY
   LAYER CONTINUED TO MOISTEN/DESTABILIZE WITH LWR 70S DEW POINTS NOW
   OBSERVED AS FAR N AS THE TN/MS BORDER AND INTO NWRN AL.  THIS WAS
   CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPES OF 2000-2500 J/KG.
   
   VWP FROM HIGH TOP AL AND COLUMBUS MS SHOW A STRONGLY SHEARED 0-6KM
   LAYER WITH VALUES AOA 60 KTS.  GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF MID-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES/INSTABILITY PRESENT...THERE IS NO SURPRISE AT THE WELL-
   MAINTAINED LARGE SUPERCELL TSTMS OVER MIDDLE TN SWWD INTO NWRN MS AT
   MID-EVENING.
   
   SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE
   EVENING DOWNSTREAM INTO NRN MS...SRN MIDDLE TN AND NRN AL. 
   BUT...NUMBER OF STORMS DEVELOPING WITHIN THE INCREASING WARM
   ADVECTION PROFILE MAY JUMP-START AN EVOLUTION INTO BOW
   ECHOES/DERECHO.  THUS...ALONG WITH TORNADO POTENTIAL...DMGG WIND
   GUSTS WILL ALSO BE LIKELY...WITH SOME WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 65
   KTS.  MAIN ACTIVITY WILL REACH NERN MS/NWRN AL BY 04Z...WITH STORMS
   DEVELOPING SEWD INVOF THE WARM FRONT BEFORE THEN.
   
   MEANWHILE...UPSTREAM WITHIN WRN PARTS OF TORNADO WATCH 298...TSTMS
   JUST UPSTREAM ACROSS NCNTRL AR APPEAR TO BE WEAKENING AS THEY INGEST
   RAIN-COOLED PARCELS FROM THE LEADING STORMS IN THE TN VLY/MID-SOUTH.
    THIS WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THE LLJ BEGINS TO
   VEER INTO NRN MS/MIDDLE TN REGION WITH TIME THIS EVENING.
   
   ..RACY.. 05/11/2008
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...
   
   35929047 35708781 35378659 34408578 33578607 33308735
   33868894 34219015 34829067 35839083 
   
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