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Mesoscale Discussion 986 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0986
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0158 PM CDT FRI MAY 23 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...WRN KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 231858Z - 232100Z
SWLY LOW-LEVEL DRY FLOW HAS INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY ALONG THE SRN
HIGH PLAINS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE NNEWD
THROUGH NM EARLY THIS AFTN. WOULD EXPECT THAT THE DRYLINE
CIRCULATION WILL BECOME ENHANCED BETWEEN 20-22Z FROM WRN SHERMAN
COUNTY SWD INTO ERN KEARNY...ERN STEVENS COUNTIES AS THE WAVE
GLANCES THE REGION.
RADAR/VSBL SATL SHOWS THAT THE SWWD MOVING OUTFLOW IN NRN/CNTRL KS
WAS BEGINNING TO SLOW AND WILL LIKELY STALL INVOF KGLD SEWD INTO NRN
BARTON COUNTY. WARM SECTOR BETWEEN THE DRY LINE AND THIS BOUNDARY
WILL BECOME STRONGLY UNSTABLE OWING TO IMPRESSIVE LOW/MID-60S SFC
DEW POINTS BENEATH VERY STEEP H7-H5 LAPSE RATES.
TSTM INITIATION IS LIKELY WITHIN THE DRYLINE CIRCULATION BY
21Z...PROBABLY EVOLVING SWD FROM ACTIVITY E OF KGLD. LOW-LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD GENTLY BACK INTO MORE OF A SELY DIRECTION LATER THIS
AFTN...EFFECTIVELY INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SRH ABOVE 200 M2/S2. AT THE
SAME TIME...MORE MERIDIONAL FLOW SHOULD BE CONFINED UPSTREAM OVER
CO...ALLOWING DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS TO MAINTAIN A SUFFICIENT
DEGREE OF NORMAL COMPONENT ACROSS THE DRYLINE FOR DISCRETE STORMS.
GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR DISCRETE STORMS...LOW LCLS AND INCREASING
SRH...TORNADOES WILL BE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY NEAR/N OF KDDC NNEWD
TOWARD HYS/KGBD. BUNKERS SUGGESTS A STORM MOTION OF 190-200 DEGREES
AT 25-30 KTS.
..RACY.. 05/23/2008
ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...
37000095 37070123 37370137 37950134 38660140 39030169
39270190 39630152 39360059 38679966 38409936 37889931
37339932 37059931 37049969
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