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Mesoscale Discussion 986
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0986
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0158 PM CDT FRI MAY 23 2008
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN KS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 231858Z - 232100Z
   
   SWLY LOW-LEVEL DRY FLOW HAS INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY ALONG THE SRN
   HIGH PLAINS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE NNEWD
   THROUGH NM EARLY THIS AFTN.  WOULD EXPECT THAT THE DRYLINE
   CIRCULATION WILL BECOME ENHANCED BETWEEN 20-22Z FROM WRN SHERMAN
   COUNTY SWD INTO ERN KEARNY...ERN STEVENS COUNTIES AS THE WAVE
   GLANCES THE REGION.
   
   RADAR/VSBL SATL SHOWS THAT THE SWWD MOVING OUTFLOW IN NRN/CNTRL KS
   WAS BEGINNING TO SLOW AND WILL LIKELY STALL INVOF KGLD SEWD INTO NRN
   BARTON COUNTY.  WARM SECTOR BETWEEN THE DRY LINE AND THIS BOUNDARY
   WILL BECOME STRONGLY UNSTABLE OWING TO IMPRESSIVE LOW/MID-60S SFC
   DEW POINTS BENEATH VERY STEEP H7-H5 LAPSE RATES.
   
   TSTM INITIATION IS LIKELY WITHIN THE DRYLINE CIRCULATION BY
   21Z...PROBABLY EVOLVING SWD FROM ACTIVITY E OF KGLD.  LOW-LEVEL FLOW
   SHOULD GENTLY BACK INTO MORE OF A SELY DIRECTION LATER THIS
   AFTN...EFFECTIVELY INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SRH ABOVE 200 M2/S2.  AT THE
   SAME TIME...MORE MERIDIONAL FLOW SHOULD BE CONFINED UPSTREAM OVER
   CO...ALLOWING DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS TO MAINTAIN A SUFFICIENT
   DEGREE OF NORMAL COMPONENT ACROSS THE DRYLINE FOR DISCRETE STORMS. 
   GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR DISCRETE STORMS...LOW LCLS AND INCREASING
   SRH...TORNADOES WILL BE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY NEAR/N OF KDDC NNEWD
   TOWARD HYS/KGBD.  BUNKERS SUGGESTS A STORM MOTION OF 190-200 DEGREES
   AT 25-30 KTS.
   
   ..RACY.. 05/23/2008
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...
   
   37000095 37070123 37370137 37950134 38660140 39030169
   39270190 39630152 39360059 38679966 38409936 37889931
   37339932 37059931 37049969 
   
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