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Mesoscale Discussion 81
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0081
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0623 AM CST TUE FEB 10 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...OLYMPIC PENINSULA
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 
   
   VALID 101223Z - 101630Z
   
   PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
   WITH HOURLY RATES OF ONE INCH LIKELY.  LOCAL RATES APPROACHING TWO
   INCHES ARE POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY ALONG THE OLYMPIC RANGE.
   
   INTENSE...DEEP-LAYER LOW CENTERED NEAR 49N/136W AS OF 1130Z WILL
   TRANSLATE SEWD TOWARD THE BRITISH COLUMBIA/WA COASTS BY THIS
   EVENING...IN CONCERT WITH OCCLUDED...FILLING SURFACE LOW.  LATEST
   SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A NW-SE ORIENTED BAND OF
   PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY MOVE ONSHORE THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF
   THIS SYNOPTIC SYSTEM...FOCUSED ALONG AND E OF SURFACE-850 MB WARM
   FRONTS.  HERE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT STRONG WAA THROUGH
   THE LOWEST 2-3 KM AGL WILL BE THE PRIMARY MECHANISM FORCING THIS
   PRECIPITATION.
   
   THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL BE QUITE SUPPORTIVE OF HEAVY SNOW
   WITH A DEEP...SATURATED PROFILE UPWARD THROUGH TEMPERATURES FAVORING
   DENDRITIC GROWTH...AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN ISOTHERMAL LAYER
   BETWEEN 800-700 MB.  THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD YIELD HOURLY SNOW RATES
   OF ONE INCH WITH LOCAL BURSTS APPROACHING TWO INCHES PER HOUR.  THE
   MORE INTENSE AND CONTINUOUS SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY BE FOCUSED ALONG
   THE OLYMPIC RANGE WHERE BROADER-SCALE ASCENT WILL BE AUGMENTED BY
   OROGRAPHIC FORCING.
   
   ..MEAD.. 02/10/2009
   
   
   ...NOTICE...
   SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
   SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
   TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC
   FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.
   
   ATTN...WFO...SEW...PQR...
   
   LAT...LON   46702369 47242425 48092455 48222424 48152358 47842303
               47332272 46882264 46592290 46472327 46702369 
   
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