MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0216
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1051 AM CDT MON MAR 09 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN OK...NRN OK...SRN KS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 091551Z - 091715Z
   
   THE HAIL THREAT WILL LIKELY INCREASE AS STORMS MOVE NEWD ACROSS WRN
   AND NRN OK LATE INTO FAR SRN KS THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS
   AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR IN PARTS OF SW OK AND
   THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD ALSO POSE A HAIL THREAT. A WW MAY BECOME
   NECESSARY IF CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY CONTINUE TO INCREASE.
   
   LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE NWD INTO SRN AND CNTRL OK
   LATE THIS MORNING AS CONVECTION FROM FAR WRN OK GRADUALLY MOVES NEWD
   INTO THE MOIST AXIS. ALTHOUGH SFC DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 30S F NEAR
   THE STORM IN WRN OK...THE OUN SOUNDINGS SHOWS AN ELEVATED MOIST
   PLUME JUST BELOW 850 MB. THIS ALONG WITH WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED
   WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD SUPPORT THE ACTIVITY NEWD INTO THE
   I-35 CORRIDOR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
   INCREASES AND SFC TEMPS WARM...STORM COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE AND
   THE CONVECTION MAY BECOME SFC-BASED RESULTING IN A GRADUAL
   INTENSIFICATION WITH TIME. THE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR OF 55 TO 65 KT
   ON THE PURCELL AND LAMONT OK PROFILERS ALONG WITH COLD AIR ALOFT
   /RUC ANALYZED 500 MB TEMPS OF -12 TO -14C/ SHOULD SUPPORT AN
   INCREASING HAIL THREAT AS STORMS INTENSIFY. IF THE CELLS CAN BECOME
   SFC-BASED...ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 03/09/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...AMA...
   
   LAT...LON   35709732 35179798 34539911 34830008 35360014 35919976
               36609892 37169748 37169665 36899639 36329653 35709732