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Mesoscale Discussion 217 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0217
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0213 PM CDT MON MAR 09 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NW TX / CNTRL OK
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 091913Z - 092015Z
SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY INCREASE STEADILY THIS AFTN. A WW MAY
BE NEEDED AS EARLY AS 20Z.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEVELOPING CU FIELD ACROSS MUCH OF
N-CNTRL TX AND S-CNTRL OK. RECENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES RAPID
MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS THE S-CNTRL PLAINS BEHIND WARM FRONT WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 F IN OKLA WITH LOWER 60S IN
N-CNTRL TX. THIS HAS OCCURRED IN PART DUE TO DIABATIC
HEATING--RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT PBL MIXING OF 925-875 MB MOISTURE
TO SURFACE.
CONVECTIVE INITIATING UNCERTAINTIES ARE WHETHER ISOLD TSTMS CAN
BREACH THE CAP THIS AFTN ALONG LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE ZONE AHEAD OF
INCREASING ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH IMPULSE MOVING INTO THE REGION
FROM NM. LATEST RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE CAP WILL WEAKEN
SUBSTANTIALLY IN SWRN OK --FSI 79/60F-- BY 21-22Z. IF THIS OCCURS
/20-22Z PERIOD/ A WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT FEW HRS.
STRONG...VEERING WIND PROFILES WITH HGHT WILL FAVOR DISCRETE
STORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL/DMGG WINDS AND ISOLD
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY LONGER LIVED
SUPERCELL AS LLJ STRENGTHENS TOWARDS 00Z.
..SMITH.. 03/09/2009
ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...
LAT...LON 32960004 35359902 36389817 36589741 36499667 36129617
35449609 34739665 33629775 32689900 32669971 32960004
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