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Mesoscale Discussion 219 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0219
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0611 PM CDT MON MAR 09 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WRN/CNTRL OK
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 52...
VALID 092311Z - 100015Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 52 CONTINUES.
SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE INCREASING...AND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING HOURS.
MAIN FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE IMPULSE LIFTING OUT
OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN NORTH OF REGION.
BUT...INHIBITION HAS WEAKENED SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW FOR THE
INITIATION OF STORMS IN THE CHILDRESS/ALTUS AREA. THIS IS JUST EAST
OF THE SURFACE DRY LINE...WHERE MIXED LAYER CAPE IS AROUND 1000
J/KG. FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BOUNDARY LAYER BASED STORMS
APPEAR LIKELY TO INTENSIFY WITHIN A STRONGLY SHEARED 50-60 KT
SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW FIELD. THIS WILL TEND TO ADVECT
STORMS INTO AREAS NEAR OR JUST WEST OF THE OKLAHOMA CITY
METROPOLITAN AREA DURING THE 00-02Z TIME FRAME. ALTHOUGH CLOCKWISE
CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS DO NOT APPEAR AS LARGE AS FARTHER
NORTH...ALONG THE WARM FRONT...THEY APPEAR SIZABLE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
A RIGHTWARD TURN OF STRONGER CELLS INTO THE OKLAHOMA CITY
AREA...BEFORE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING COMMENCES THIS EVENING.
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS...IN ADDITION
TO THE RISK FOR LARGE HAIL/LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
..KERR.. 03/09/2009
ATTN...WFO...OUN...
LAT...LON 34499974 35329916 36059848 36119787 35879722 35109734
34339796 33839932 34499974
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