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Mesoscale Discussion 220 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0220
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0736 PM CDT MON MAR 09 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE TX BIG COUNTRY
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 100036Z - 100130Z
AN ISOLD LARGE HAIL/WIND THREAT MAY EVOLVE IN THE NEXT HR OR TWO
OVER PARTS OF THE TX BIG COUNTRY REGION. A WW DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
WARRANTED ATTM DUE TO EXPECTED RELATIVELY ISOLD CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
ALONG WITH ANTICIPATED MARGINAL MAGNITUDE OF SEVERE THREAT.
RECENT RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS INTENSIFYING CONVECTION ALONG SW-NE
ORIENTED LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE ZONE/DRYLINE FROM UPTON TO HOWARD
COUNTY TX. STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILE /00Z MAF RAOB OF 70
KTS 0-6 KM SHEAR/ NEARLY PARALLEL TO INITIATING BOUNDARY WILL SERVE
TO PROMOTE UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A LOOSE BAND OF CELL MERGING-LINEAR
CONVECTION. DESPITE MODEST POTENTIAL INSTABILITY /MODIFIED FORECAST
SOUNDING 1000 J/KG MUCAPE/...STORMS MAY POSE AN ISOLD LARGE
HAIL/DMGG WIND THREAT WITH THE SRN STRONGER CORE/S AS TSTMS ORGANIZE
WITH TIME.
..SMITH.. 03/10/2009
ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...
LAT...LON 31470223 32460122 33000047 33529964 33499929 33289902
33039902 32030028 31400170 31270205 31470223
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