MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1997
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1119 PM CDT MON SEP 07 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NC OUTER BANKS.
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 080419Z - 080645Z
   
   CONDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF TORNADO IS SHIFTING NEWD UP NC
   COAST...PRIMARILY FROM CAPE LOOKOUT TO CAPE HATTERAS DURING NEXT
   SEVERAL HOURS.  WW NOT PLANNED ATTM BECAUSE OF MRGL NATURE OF THREAT
   AND VERY LIMITED LAND AREA INVOLVED.
   
   SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS LOW JUST OFFSHORE ILM INVOF BUOY
   41037...DRIFTING NNE TO NE...WITH WARM FRONT NEWD TO JUST OFFSHORE
   CAPE LOOKOUT AND STILL S OF BUOY 41025. WARM FRONT SHOULD DRIFT NWD
   AHEAD OF LOW.  REFLECTIVITY IMAGERY INDICATES PRIMARY ASSOCIATED
   BAND OF CONVECTION FROM ERN CARTERET COUNTY SSEWD OVER
   ATLANTIC...WITH NET NEWD MOTION 8-10 KT.  DRY SLOTTING AND LACK OF
   LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD CONTINUE W OF THIS BAND...MAKING IT WRN
   BOUND OF ANY SVR POTENTIAL.  THROUGHOUT EVENING SO FAR...A FEW
   SHORT-LIVED...SMALL...LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS HAVE SPUN UP FROM TIME
   TO TIME OFFSHORE WITHIN BAND...AND IN CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION AHEAD
   OF BAND.  CAUSATIVE ENVIRONMENT MAY SHIFT SHOREWARD JUST ENOUGH TO
   AFFECT OUTER BANKS.  THERMODYNAMIC AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
   CHARACTERISTICS -- WHILE OCCURRING IN CONJUNCTION WITH A
   NON-TROPICAL LOW -- STRONGLY APPROXIMATE THAT COMMON TO SOME
   IMMATURE TROPICAL CYCLONES OVER SMALL AREA NE THROUGH E OF CENTER. 
   VWP...MODIFIED MHX RAOB AND RUC SOUNDINGS EACH SUGGEST SUFFICIENT
   LOW LEVEL SHEAR FOR ADDITIONAL/TRANSIENT MINI-SUPERCELLS TO FORM.
   MHX VWP -- WHEN SAMPLING SECTOR OF CYCLONE AND WARM FRONTAL ZONE NOW
   LOCATED FARTHER E OVER OUTER BANKS...YIELDED 0-1 KM SRH AROUND 150
   J/KG...WITH SIMILAR VALUES DERIVED FROM FCST SOUNDINGS.  PRESENCE OF
   LARGE AREAS OF PRECIP AND SUBTLE DIABATIC COOLING TO ITS N SHOULD
   HELP TO KEEP STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER INLAND WITH WARM FRONT NEAR
   SHORE.  HOWEVER...HIGH-THETAE MARINE AIR OFFSETS WEAK LAPSE RATES
   ALOFT JUST ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MRGL BUOYANCY NEAR WARM FRONT...I.E.
   MLCAPE AROUND 250 J/KG...WITH EFFECTIVE PARCELS ROOTED AT SFC.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 09/08/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MHX...
   
   LAT...LON   34827644 34947631 35217587 35307553 35587547 35587543
               35197550 35197561 35097592 34917617 34757632 34757645
               34827644