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Mesoscale Discussion 328
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0328
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0322 PM CDT WED APR 21 2010
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST CO/NORTHEAST NM/WESTERN OK PANHANDLE/MUCH
   OF TX PANHANDLE
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 212022Z - 212145Z
   
   SEVERE RISK IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
   EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST CO/NORTHEAST NM AND THE WESTERN
   OK PANHANDLE AND PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE/TX SOUTH PLAINS. ONE
   OR MORE WATCHES MAY BE NEEDED BY 22Z.
   
   MDT/TOWERING CU CONTINUES TO BECOME MORE PREVALENT AT MID AFTERNOON
   ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST CO AND NORTHEAST NM IN OROGRAPHICALLY
   FAVORED/FOOTHILL AREAS...WITH ADDITIONAL CUMULIFORM DEVELOPMENT
   INCREASING WITHIN A WARM/DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG THE
   EASTERN NM/TX SOUTH PLAINS BORDER VICINITY. FARTHER EAST...STRATUS
   FIELD CONTINUES TO ERODE ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF AN EFFECTIVE WARM
   FRONT ARCING GENERALLY NW-SE FROM FAR SOUTHEAST CO TO THE SOUTHERN
   TX PANHANDLE/TX SOUTH PLAINS/CAPROCK VICINITY INCLUDING THE
   PLAINVIEW VICINITY TO SOUTH OF CHILDRESS.
   
   WITH TIME...TSTMS SHOULD INCREASE/ULTIMATELY DEVELOP EAST-SOUTHEAST
   ACROSS THE TERRAIN-ADJACENT PLAINS OF SOUTHEAST CO/NORTHEAST NM...AS
   WELL AS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE/TX SOUTH PLAINS.
   WHILE A MID LEVEL FLOW WEAKNESS IS ASCERTAINED BETWEEN 1-4 KM PER
   12Z OBSERVED RAOBS/LATEST PROFILER DATA...GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING
   W-SW FLOW ALOFT AND VEERING WIND PROFILES /ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
   MODIFYING EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT/ WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.
   SEVERE HAIL AND A TORNADO OR TWO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
   AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...THE LATTER ESPECIALLY WITH ANY STORM
   DEVELOPING NEAR/INTERACTING WITH THE EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT ACROSS THE
   TX PANHANDLE/TX SOUTH PLAINS/CAPROCK VICINITY WHERE LOW LEVEL FLOW
   IS BACKED TO SOUTHEASTERLY.
   
   ..GUYER.. 04/21/2010
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...PUB...ABQ...
   
   LAT...LON   37490472 38170448 37940331 36980304 35240143 34739999
               33710014 34220266 36270400 37490472 
   
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