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Mesoscale Discussion 517
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0517
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0323 PM CDT TUE MAY 11 2010
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN TX THROUGH SWRN AND W-CNTRL OK
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 112023Z - 112130Z
   
   CORRECTED FOR WORDING IN SECOND SENTENCE OF MAIN PARAGRAPH
   
   NWRN TX THROUGH SWRN AND W CNTRL OK ARE BEING MONITORED FOR STORM
   INITIATION. IF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THEY WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AND
   BECOME SUPERCELLULAR WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES PROBABLE.
   
   A WARM FRONT STRETCHES FROM SRN MO SWWD THROUGH CNTRL OK THEN WW
   INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. A DRYLINE EXTENDS THROUGH WRN AND NWRN TX
   INTO SWRN OK WHERE IT INTERSECTS THE WARM FRONT. PARTIAL CLEARING
   HAS OCCURRED IN PORTION OF WARM SECTOR FROM NWRN TX THROUGH WRN OK
   BOOSTING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S...AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A
   RESERVOIR OF 4000 J/KG MLCAPE WHERE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE
   OVERSPREAD THE THETA-E AXIS. THE SCALLOPED APPEARANCE OF THE LOW
   CLOUDS AND POINT FORECAST SOUNDING DATA SUGGEST THE BOUNDARY LAYER
   IS STILL CAPPED...AND UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THE EXTENT AND
   TIMING OF INITIATION. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN
   TOWARDS EVENING...AND THIS WILL ENHANCE CONVERGENCE AND ISENTROPIC
   LIFT ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. WV IMAGERY ALSO
   SUGGESTS AN UPPER IMPULSE MAY BE MOVING EWD THROUGH WRN TX...AND
   DEEPER ASCENT WITH THIS FEATURE COULD PROMOTE THUNDERSTORM
   DEVELOPMENT FARTHER S OVER NWRN TX ALONG THE DRYLINE. GIVEN THE
   EXTREME INSTABILITY...40-50 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INCREASING 0-1
   KM HODOGRAPH SIZE WITH TIME...SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND A
   FEW TORNADOES WILL BE LIKELY...CONDITIONAL UPON INITIATION.
   
   ..DIAL.. 05/11/2010
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OUN...
   
   LAT...LON   34779767 33739857 33879955 34719960 35769956 36239876
               36049724 35369696 34779767 
   
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