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Mesoscale Discussion 526
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0526
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1253 PM CDT WED MAY 12 2010
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND EASTERN VA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 121753Z - 121900Z
   
   ORGANIZED MCS WILL TRACK EASTWARD INTO VA DURING NEXT FEW HOURS AND
   LIKELY INTENSIFY.  A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR
   THIS AREA SOON.
   
   LARGE AND LONG-LIVED MCS OVER WV IS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
   APPALACHIANS AT AROUND 35 KNOTS...AND WILL LIKELY BEGIN AFFECTING
   WESTERN VA BY 19Z.  THE AIRMASS OVER CENTRAL VA HAS BEEN
   HEATING/DESTABILIZING THROUGH THE DAY WITH SBCAPE VALUES NOW RANGING
   FROM 1500-2000 J/KG.  STORMS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MCS ARE
   EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS THEY MOVE INTO THE MORE UNSTABLE AIR AND
   TRACK TOWARD THE COAST BY MID EVENING.  A BAND OF 50-70 KNOT
   WESTERLY MID LEVEL WINDS SHOWN IN MODEL GUIDANCE AND VAD PROFILES
   NEAR THE MCS WILL PROMOTE BOW STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING
   WINDS.  HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER CELLS.
   
   ..HART.. 05/12/2010
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...
   
   LAT...LON   37688033 38317902 38437747 37587701 36947791 36958055
               37688033 
   
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