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Mesoscale Discussion 527
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0527
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0221 PM CDT WED MAY 12 2010
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SERN KS / W-CNTRL OK
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 121921Z - 122015Z
   
   A LARGE PORTION OF SERN KS EXTENDING INTO W-CNTRL OK IS BEING
   MONITORED FOR THE ISSUANCE OF A TORNADO WATCH.  
   
   RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW THE CU FIELD BECOMING MORE AGITATED IN
   THE PAST HOUR OR SO--ACROSS THE I-35 CORRIDOR IN S-CNTRL KS AND
   N-CNTRL OK AND AREAS IMMEDIATELY TO THE W AHEAD OF A SLOWLY MOVING
   BAROCLINIC ZONE.  19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A SURFACE LOW OVER
   NWRN OK WITH A STALLED SURFACE FRONT LOCATED FROM 10 MI N HUT DRAPED
   NEWD TO THE KANSAS CITY METRO.  A COLD FRONT EXHIBITING ANAFRONTAL
   CHARACTER IS SLOWLY BEGINNING TO PUSH EWD OVER PRATT COUNTY SWWD
   INTO NWRN OK AS THE UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH EJECTS EWD INTO THE SRN
   HIGH PLAINS.  A COMPLICATING FACTOR TO STORM INITIATION SCENARIO IS
   THE EWD PROGRESSION OF A GRAVITY WAVE FROM NEAR EMP SWWD TO CNTRL
   OK.  
   
   STORMS THAT CAN MOVE OFF OF OR DEVELOP IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE EWD
   MOVING COLD FRONT/DRYLINE AND REMAIN S OF THE STATIONARY FRONT IN
   THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL/DMMG WINDS AND AN
   ISOLD TORNADO.  OTHERWISE...PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED FRONTAL CHARACTER
   ACROSS S-CNTRL KS WILL LIKELY HAVE A DETRIMENTAL IMPACT UPON STORM
   LONGEVITY/SEVERITY AS MEAN FLOW IS LARGELY MORE PARALLEL TO THE
   FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE I-135 CORRIDOR.  
   
   REGARDLESS OF FEATURES/MECHANISMS SPAWNING CONVECTIVE INITIATION...A
   MOIST/MODERATE TO VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS /2000-3500 MLCAPE/ ACCORDING
   TO 18Z OUN RAOB...IS CONTINUING TO DESTABILIZE WITH THE CAP EXPECTED
   TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN TOWARDS MID-AFTERNOON.  LOW LEVEL FLOW /AOA 20
   KTS 0-1 KM SHEAR/ HAS BEEN NOTED TO BE STRONGER FARTHER N AND E
   ACROSS SERN KS SWD INTO CNTRL OK PER RECENT AREA VWP/UPPER AIR DATA.
    MORE THAN ADEQUATE SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS
   CAPABLE OF LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL...DMGG WINDS...AND ISOLD TORNADO
   OR TWO.
   
   ..SMITH.. 05/12/2010
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...
   
   LAT...LON   36939907 37969834 38679723 38969547 38899474 38429468
               37949492 37039652 35959791 35189873 34869913 34909954
               35249972 36939907 
   
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