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Mesoscale Discussion 531
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0531
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0720 PM CDT WED MAY 12 2010
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NEB...EXTREME SWRN IA AND NWRN MO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 130020Z - 130115Z
   
   A CLUSTER OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS NNEWD
   INTO SERN NEB...WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
   MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.
   
   STRONG INVERSION LAYER IS EVIDENT ATOP A VERY COOL NEAR SFC LAYER
   /PER THE 00Z OAX SOUNDING/ AS A WARM FRONT EXTENDS OVER ERN KS.
   STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE INVERSION LAYER WILL BE
   SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN CONVECTION INTO SERN NEB. ADDITIONAL
   CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR FARTHER EWD TOWARDS THE MO RIVER
   THIS EVENING. A STRONG GRADIENT OF INSTABILITY EXISTS N OF
   I-80...AND ANY CONVECTION THAT CAN PERSIST PAST THIS AREA WILL
   LIKELY WEAKEN. WITH MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG...MARGINALLY
   SEVERE HAIL WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THE STRONGER
   REFLECTIVITY CORES. DUE TO THE MARGINAL AND ISOLATED THREAT FOR
   HAIL...A WEATHER WATCH IS UNLIKELY.
   
   ..ROGERS.. 05/13/2010
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...GID...
   
   LAT...LON   40029790 40309802 40749797 41399748 41489632 41389609
               41369594 41219540 40939510 40729496 40029538 40029790 
   
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