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Mesoscale Discussion 534
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0534
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1003 PM CDT WED MAY 12 2010
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX PANHANDLE AND TX S PLAINS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 156...
   
   VALID 130303Z - 130400Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 156
   CONTINUES.
   
   THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE ERN TX
   PANHANDLE AND TX S PLAINS. THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THESE STORMS
   WILL BE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS.
   
   A COMPLEX SFC PATTERN HAS SET UP ACROSS MUCH OF W TX...AS A COLD
   FRONT IS PUSHING SWD ACROSS THE SRN TX PANHANDLE. A SFC
   DRYLINE...EXTENDING ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR TURKEY...TO RALLS...AND
   15 W OF JUSTICEBURG PER 02Z SFC ANALYSIS...HAS STALLED AFTER
   RETREATING WWD. THE ENVIRONMENT E OF THE DRYLINE AND S OF THE COLD
   FRONT STILL REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE...WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF
   1500-2500 J/KG PRESENT. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF INSTABILITY AND A
   FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND PROFILE /AROUND 50 KTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR PER
   JTN PROFILER/...ANY STORMS THAT MOVE E OFF THE DRYLINE INTO THIS
   ENVIRONMENT WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SEVERE WINDS/HAIL. 
   
   AN UPPER WAVE OVER SERN CO IS EVIDENT ON RECENT WATER VAPOR
   IMAGERY...AND APPEARS TO BE PROVIDING SUFFICIENT FORCING FOR
   CONVECTION OVER THE ERN PANHANDLE...DESPITE A COOLER POST-FRONTAL
   SFC AIR MASS. ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN N OF THE
   FRONT...YIELDING A THREAT OF HAIL-PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS.
   
   ..ROGERS.. 05/13/2010
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...
   
   LAT...LON   33160164 34040110 35190116 35610059 35690037 35970000
               35230004 34120013 33130035 32180204 32550231 33160164 
   
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