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Mesoscale Discussion 816
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0816
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0231 PM CDT SAT JUN 05 2010
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN IA AND PARTS OF ADJACENT MO INTO NRN
   IL/SRN WI
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 051931Z - 052130Z
   
   A WATCH LIKELY WILL BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON...IF NOT
   BEFORE...ACROSS UPPER PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  AN
   INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS NOW ONGOING...BUT SIGNIFICANT
   INTENSIFICATION AND INCREASE IN SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY STILL BE
   SEVERAL HOURS AWAY.
   
   NEAR SURFACE FOCUS FOR BOUNDARY LAYER BASED STORM FORMATION IS STILL
   UNCLEAR...BUT CONVECTION IS GRADUALLY INCREASING WITHIN BANDS OF
   STEEPER ISENTROPIC ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC
   WARM ADVECTION.  THIS IS DOWNSTREAM...JUST TO THE SOUTH AND
   EAST...OF BROAD UPPER TROUGHING DIGGING EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
   NORTHERN PLAINS.
   
   LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE SLOWLY STEEPENING TO THE NORTH OF A
   REMNANT CONVECTIVELY GENERATED BOUNDARY OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI. 
   COUPLED WITH MODESTLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND HIGH
   PRECIPITABLE WATER UP TO 2 INCHES...THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS LIKELY
   TO BECOME INCREASINGLY CONDUCIVE FOR UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH
   THROUGH 21-23Z.
   
   DEEP LAYER WESTERLY MEAN FLOW FIELDS NEAR A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL
   CYCLONE MIGRATING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION ARE IN THE PROCESS OF
   STRENGTHENING IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS...WHICH EVENTUALLY WILL CONTRIBUTE
   TO THE RISK FOR DAMAGING SURFACE GUSTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVEN. 
   UNTIL THEN...SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH ISOLATED SUPERCELLS MAY BE THE
   PRIMARY THREAT IN THE NEAR TERM.
   
   ..KERR.. 06/05/2010
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...FSD...OAX...
   
   LAT...LON   42729552 43349444 43519212 42979013 42418921 41818912
               40759029 40599207 40689403 40799498 41309585 42729552 
   
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Page last modified: June 05, 2010
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