MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0885
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0529 PM CDT THU JUN 10 2010
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO...WRN KS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 102229Z - 102330Z
   
   A SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS ERN CO AND WRN KS LATE
   THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT
   ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE AS SFC-BASED
   STORMS INITIATE. A WW WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY ACROSS THE REGION.
   
   THE LATEST RADAR DATA SHOWS TWO CELLS TRYING TO INITIATE...ONE SOUTH
   OF LIMON CO AND ANOTHER NORTHWEST OF GARDEN CITY KS. THESE CELLS ARE
   LOCATED ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WHERE
   OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 2500 TO 5000 J/KG
   RANGE WITH A WEAKENING CAPPING INVERSION. IN ADDITION...WATER VAPOR
   IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SE CO AND NE NM. AS THIS
   FEATURE MOVES NEWD TOWARD THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...CONVECTIVE
   COVERAGE MAY INCREASE AS IS DEPICTED BY THE LATEST HRRR AND NMM4
   MODEL RUNS. THE STRONG INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH 30 TO 40 KT OF 0-6
   KM SHEAR EVIDENT ON REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS SHOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELL
   DEVELOPMENT. AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL AND
   DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 06/10/2010
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...
   
   LAT...LON   38049983 37820047 38070275 38430338 38720360 39080356
               39730328 40230279 40360158 40100039 39739964 39189934
               38509946 38259961 38049983