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Mesoscale Discussion 888 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0888
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0917 PM CDT THU JUN 10 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO...NW KS...SW NEB
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 293...
VALID 110217Z - 110315Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 293 CONTINUES.
A SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS THE WRN PART OF WW 293
WITH THE THREAT EVENTUALLY INCREASING ACROSS THE ERN PART OF THE
WATCH LATE THIS EVENING. A FEW TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE INTENSE CELLS.
A CLUSTER OF SEVERE STORMS IN NE CO IS ONGOING ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF
STRONG TO EXTREME INSTABILITY ACROSS FAR NE CO...NW KS AND SW NEB
WITH OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWING MLCAPE VALUES IN NW KS IN
THE 4500 TO 5500 J/KG RANGE. THIS ALONG WITH 40 TO 50 KT OF 0-6 KM
SHEAR SHOULD EASILY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS LATE THIS EVENING
INTO PART OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. A DOMINANT SUPERCELL NORTHEAST OF
LIMON CO SHOULD PERSIST EWD INTO SW NEB AND MAY CONTINUE TO HAVE A
POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES ESPECIALLY AS THE STORM ENCOUNTERS THE WRN
EDGE OF A 35 TO 45 KT LOW-LEVEL JET. VERY LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS CELL AND OTHER SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP DUE TO THE
VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE. EVENTUALLY...THE CLUSTER
OF STORMS IN NE CO SHOULD BECOME AN MCS. IF A LINEAR STRUCTURE CAN
ORGANIZE...THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY INCREASE ACROSS THE ERN PART
OF WW 293 LATE THIS EVENING AND A NEW WATCH OR LOCAL EXTENSION MAY
BECOME NECESSARY.
..BROYLES.. 06/11/2010
ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...
LAT...LON 38229961 38210206 38620208 38600316 38490319 38510404
39100403 39120463 39540467 39580509 40330506 40370494
40980493 40970206 41390203 41380020 40670018 40669871
40029872 40029849 39139847 39109901 38329901 38339958
38229961
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