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Mesoscale Discussion 889 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0889
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1037 PM CDT THU JUN 10 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND CNTRL NEB...SRN AND ERN SD
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 294...
VALID 110337Z - 110430Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 294 CONTINUES.
A SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS CNTRL NEB AND CNTRL SD
LATE THIS EVENING WITH THE THREAT SPREADING EWD INTO SE SD AND
ECNTRL NEB. A TORNADO THREAT WILL EXIST ACROSS CNTRL AND NRN NEB
WITH THE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUST THREAT EXTENDING FROM
CNTRL NEB NEWD INTO SE SD. A WW MAY BE NEEDED EAST OF WW 294 AND WW
295 LATER TONIGHT.
TWO LINES OF INTENSE STORMS WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS HAVE QUICKLY
DEVELOPED ACROSS CNTRL NEB OVER THE LAST HOUR. THIS LINE IS LOCATED
JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY WITH OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS STILL SHOWING 4000 TO 5000 J/KG OF MLCAPE ACROSS SW AND
CNTRL NEB. THIS ALONG WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NORTH PLATTE NEWD TO ONEILL NEB
SHOULD CONTINUE TO AID THE EXPANSION OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE ERN
PART OF WW 294. THE LATEST WSR-88D VWPS FROM NCNTRL NEB SHOW ABOUT
40 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR ALONG WITH ABOUT 200 M2/S2 OF 0-3 KM HELICITY.
THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND WILL
LIKELY KEEP IMPROVING AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS LATE THIS
EVENING. FOR THIS REASON...A TORNADO THREAT SHOULD PERSIST FOR
SEVERAL MORE HOURS. LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE MORE INTENSE CELLS EMBEDDED IN THE DEVELOPING MCS.
FURTHER NORTHEAST ACROSS SERN SD...MODERATE INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE
WITH WSR-88D VWPS SHOWING 50 TO 60 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR. THIS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH THE MAIN
THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
..BROYLES.. 06/11/2010
ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR...CYS...
LAT...LON 40649869 40670023 41380024 41360203 41000204 41020408
41400411 41410338 42010337 42120345 42410344 42430271
43000277 43010211 43680213 43690202 44000204 43960103
43820103 43740071 43709991 43799965 43539963 43509953
42979949 42979925 41759921 41749876 40649869
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