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Mesoscale Discussion 1068
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1068
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1044 PM CDT MON JUN 21 2010
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN LOWER MICHIGAN INTO PARTS OF NRN IND...NW
   IND
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 220344Z - 220445Z
   
   IT IS NOT YET CERTAIN THAT A NEW WW WILL BE NEEDED.  BUT TRENDS ARE
   BEING MONITORED.
   
   LARGE-SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE IMPULSE ADVANCING
   EAST OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS MAINTAINING CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT IN A CLUSTER NOW BEGINNING TO SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN
   LAKE MICHIGAN.  ACTIVITY APPEARS LIKELY TO NOW BE ROOTED IN A
   LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME...ELEVATED ABOVE AT LEAST A SHALLOW
   NEAR SURFACE STABLE LAYER.  THIS SEEMS LIKELY TO REMAIN THE CASE AS
   CONVECTION SPREADS ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN BETWEEN
   NOW AND 06-08Z.  ALTHOUGH WESTERLY LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW MAY
   STRENGTHEN TO MODERATE LEVELS...ON THE ORDER OF 30-40 KT...LOW-LEVEL
   THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES...INCLUDING GENERALLY STABLE NEAR SURFACE
   LAPSE RATES...MAY LIMIT THE POTENTIAL STRENGTH OF SURFACE GUSTS. 
   STRONGEST WINDS COULD... HOWEVER...APPROACH...OR BRIEFLY
   EXCEED...SEVERE LIMITS.
   
   ..KERR.. 06/22/2010
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...LOT...
   
   LAT...LON   43928674 44348560 44418452 44428358 43998253 43108256
               42418281 41748339 41388492 41478640 41688724 42748659
               43928674 
   
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