MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1069
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1115 PM CDT MON JUN 21 2010
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SE NEB...NE KS...NW MO...SWRN IA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 371...
   
   VALID 220415Z - 220545Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 371
   CONTINUES.
   
   THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS MAY INCREASE ACROSS PARTS OF THE
   LOWER/MID MISSOURI VALLEY LATER TONIGHT.  TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED
   FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A NEW WW.
   
   AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE IMPULSE TURNS EASTWARD THROUGH THE BASE OF
   THE LARGE-SCALE WESTERN TROUGH...MODELS SUGGEST LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
   30-50 KT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. 
   STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND FORCING FOR CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN FOCUSED IN A BAND STRADDLING
   THE WESTERN/CENTRAL KANSAS AND NEBRASKA BORDER THROUGH MUCH OF THE
   NIGHT.  HOWEVER...FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSE
   AND SPEED MAXIMUM ROUNDING THE CREST OF THE PLAINS RIDGE COULD
   SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EASTWARD INTO THE
   LOWER/MID MISSOURI VALLEY AREA DURING THE 06-09Z TIME FRAME.  IF
   THIS OCCURS...MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH
   STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MIXED LAYER/MOST UNSTABLE CAPE OF
   2000-3000+ J/KG WILL SUPPORT THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF
   PRODUCING DAMAGING GUSTS AND HAIL.
   
   ..KERR.. 06/22/2010
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...
   
   LAT...LON   40629758 41479639 41079471 39849337 38959463 39029577
               39609734 40629758