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Mesoscale Discussion 2155
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2155
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0852 PM CST THU DEC 30 2010
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN OK...NERN TX...WRN AR
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 310252Z - 310445Z
   
   POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR THIS
   EVENING AND OVERNIGHT FROM NERN TX/ERN OK INTO WRN AR. GUSTY WINDS
   APPEARS TO BE THE MOST LIKELY SEVERE MODE...ALTHOUGH A HAIL AND
   CONDITIONAL THREAT OF TORNADOES ALSO EXISTS.
   
   STRONG SHEAR PROFILES ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF A
   STRONG EJECTING UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO W TX AS OF 03Z. ALSO NOTED
   ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS ANOTHER FEATURE EXTENDING FROM NEAR SPS TO
   LRD...MOVING RAPIDLY EWD. AS THESE EMBEDDED FEATURES ALOFT
   OVERSPREAD THE LOW LEVEL THETA-E AXIS...A RASH OF NEAR-SURFACE BASED
   CONVECTION IS LIKELY. CURRENTLY...ACTIVITY OVER SERN OK IS SHALLOW
   AND BENEATH A MINOR CAPPING INVERSION. THIS ACTIVTY...AND/OR NEW
   ACTIVITY MAY STRENGTHEN/DEVELOP SWWD ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF THE
   INSTABILITY AXIS WHERE COOLING ALOFT WILL BE FELT FIRST.
   
   RELATIVELY COOL MID/UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SHEAR
   PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS SUGGESTS A HAIL THREAT EXISTS
   ESPECIALLY OVER OK/TX WHERE HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT AND COOLER
   TEMPERATURES ALOFT COEXIST.  STRONG SHEAR PROFILES WILL ALSO FAVOR
   DAMAGING WINDS...AND A CONDITIONAL TORNADO THREAT AS LONG AS THE
   BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS WARM ENOUGH FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS. A MAJOR
   UNKNOWN IS THE EXTENT OF STORM COVERAGE ACROSS NERN TX/SERN OK WHERE
   SURFACE BASED STORMS ARE MOST LIKELY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
   TRENDS IN THESE AREAS.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 12/31/2010
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...
   
   LAT...LON   34729580 35479532 35649460 35529364 34919333 34209343
               33529367 32759430 32789595 33719635 34729580 
   
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Page last modified: December 31, 2010
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