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Mesoscale Discussion 2163
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2163
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0942 AM CST FRI DEC 31 2010
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN LA THROUGH SRN MS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 311542Z - 311745Z
   
   MOSTLY SHALLOW AND SLIGHTLY ELEVATED CONVECTION CONTINUES FROM SERN
   LA NEWD THROUGH SRN MS. TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED...AND IF STORMS
   BEGIN TO SHOW EVIDENCE OF ORGANIZATION OR INTENSIFICATION A WW WILL
   BE NEEDED.
   
   THIS MORNING SCATTERED CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING FROM SERN LA INTO
   SRN MS WITHIN ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG A 50
   KT LLJ AXIS. ACTIVITY IS ELEVATED ABOVE A SHALLOW STABLE LAYER AND
   OBSERVED 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW A PRONOUNCED INVERSION BETWEEN 850-700
   MB FROM WRN LA INTO A PORTION OF SRN MS ASSOCIATED WITH EML. SOME OF
   THE CONVECTION IN SERN LA AND THE BOOTHEEL OF MS IS PRODUCING
   LIGHTNING...SUGGESTIVE OF DEEPER UPDRAFTS DEVELOPING EAST OF THE
   WARMER EML. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY PERSIST IN THIS REGION INTO THE
   AFTERNOON AND POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS WILL INCREASE AS
   TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOWER 70S...BUT MORE SUBSTANTIAL DIABATIC
   WARMING WILL BE DELAYED OR LIMITED TO SOME DEGREE BY WIDESPREAD
   STRATUS. LARGE HODOGRAPHS ALONG THE LLJ AXIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A
   SUPERCELL AND TORNADO THREAT WITH ANY STORMS THAT BECOME SURFACE
   BASED.
   
   ..DIAL.. 12/31/2010
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...
   
   LAT...LON   29508951 29649163 31799066 32718916 31568863 29508951 
   
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Page last modified: December 31, 2010
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