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Mesoscale Discussion 64
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0064
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0311 AM CST TUE FEB 01 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN OK...SERN KS...SW/WCNTRL MO
   
   CONCERNING...BLIZZARD 
   
   VALID 010911Z - 011515Z
   
   DYNAMIC MID-LEVEL IMPULSE WAS BEGINNING TO CLOSE OFF ACROSS NCNTRL
   TX AT 09Z WITH INTENSE H7-H5 FRONTOGENETIC FORCING BECOMING
   ESTABLISHED FROM CNTRL OK INTO WRN MO.  MESOSCALE BANDING WAS
   INCREASING/NARROWING AS UPRIGHT/SLANTWISE INSTABILITY IS
   RELEASING...AND EXPECT SNOWFALL RATES TO CONTINUE INCREASING INTO
   THE 2-3" PER HOUR RANGE IN MOST INTENSE BANDS.
   
   LATEST RUC AND 00Z 4KM WRF-NMM APPEAR TO HAVE EXCELLENT HANDLE ON
   THE SCENARIO EVOLVING.  4KM MODEL SUGGESTS THAT CURRENT MESOSCALE
   BAND FROM CADDO COUNTY NWD INTO NCNTRL OK WILL REMAIN
   QUASISTATIONARY THROUGH 12-13Z WITH MORE DOMINANT BANDS EVOLVING
   WITH TIME FROM EAST OF KOKC-KTUL-MIDWAY BETWEEN KSZL/KAIZ IN WCNTRL
   MO BY 15Z.  PIVOT POINT WILL PROBABLY EVOLVE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN
   KOKC-KTUL WITH COLD CONVEYOR MAINTENANCE OF MDT-HVY SNOWFALL RATES
   IN CNTRL OK AND POINTS ENE THROUGH NOON.  SNOW RATIOS WILL BE
   MODERATE...AVERAGING 12:1...AND LATEST REPORT FROM PINK OK OF 2-3"
   PER HOUR RATES AGREES WITH THE 21Z SREF HIGH PROBABILITY OF THOSE
   RATES.  THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES WILL PEAK 12-15Z IN CNTRL
   OK...AND AFTER 15Z FROM NERN OK INTO WRN MO.
   
   THERE HAVE BEEN NUMEROUS GUSTS ABOVE 35 KTS AND LOW VISIBILITIES
   BENEATH THE STRONGEST SNOWBANDS.  WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS EXPECTED
   TO REMAIN AOA THAT RANGE...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL BE OBSERVED.
   
   ..RACY.. 02/01/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...
   
   LAT...LON   36079476 35609513 35199561 34859595 34739627 34789686
               34839734 34989761 35239781 35669780 36129766 36679746
               37119719 37479679 39119423 39119221 38089220 36079476 
   
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