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Mesoscale Discussion 424
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0424
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1234 PM CDT THU APR 14 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL-SERN KS.
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 141734Z - 141930Z
   
   ARC OF TSTMS MAY DEVELOP IN CURVING/NW-SE FASHION ACROSS SRN
   PORTIONS OF DISCUSSION AREA AFTER ABOUT 18Z...CELLS GENERALLY MOVING
   NNWWD TO NEWD WITH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL...ISOLATED STG-SVR GUSTS
   AND A FEW TORNADOES.  EXPECT CONVECTION TO BUILD SEWD ALONG
   ARC...AFFECTING MORE OF CENTRAL/SERN KS WITH TIME THROUGH LATE
   AFTERNOON.
   
   17Z SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWED LOW OVER SWRN KS BETWEEN P28-DDC...FCST
   TO CONTINUE MOVING NNEWD TOWARD GBD/RSL AREA.  SFC WARM FRONT
   INITIALLY DRAWN NEWD ACROSS RICE COUNTY AND EWD NEAR EMP WILL LIFT
   NWD AND NWWD TOWARD I-70.  WRN WARM FRONT SEGMENT WILL MERGE WITH
   COMBINED INVERTED TROUGH AND STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING NNEWD FROM
   LOW ACROSS BARTON/JEWELL COUNTIES.  BOTH WAA AND MOIST ADVECTION
   ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL KS WILL RESULT IN FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL THETAE
   AND RAPIDLY WEAKENING MLCINH.  VIS IMAGERY ALREADY INDICATES CU
   FIELD THICKENING VERTICALLY AND HORIZONTALLY ACROSS SRN KS BETWEEN
   ICT AND SFC LOW...AND TSTMS SHOULD EVOLVE FROM THAT.  EXPECT SFC DEW
   POINTS COMMONLY LOW-MID 50S F...REACHING UPPER 50S NEAR OK
   BORDER...CONTERMINOUS WITH STG SFC DIABATIC HEATING THAT WILL
   STEEPEN 0-3 KM LAPSE RATES.  MEANWHILE LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL
   INCREASE AHEAD OF DEEPENING MID-UPPER LOW OVER SERN CO...DUE TO
   COMBINATION OF DESTABILIZATION RELATED TO DCVA AND
   AGEOSTROPHICALLY-FORCED JET-LEVEL ASCENT.  RESULT SHOULD BE CORRIDOR
   OF MLCAPE RANGING FROM AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG NEAR ERN KS/OK
   BORDER...TO 250-500 J/KG IN IMMEDIATE PROXIMITY TO SFC LOW. 
   ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY/LIFT/SRH/SHEAR NEAR LOW AND COMBINED
   FRONTAL ZONES MAY AID LOCALIZED SUPERCELL/TORNADO THREAT.
   
   MEANWHILE...CELLS FORMING OR MOVING N OF WARM FRONTAL ZONE WILL
   TRANSLATE ATOP STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER BUT STILL CAN PRODUCE LARGE
   HAIL...GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES AND FAVORABLE BUOYANCY/LIFT ALOFT.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 04/14/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...
   
   LAT...LON   37239736 37609794 37819851 37849904 38489924 39919857
               39339727 38599645 37759610 37059614 37239736 
   
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