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Mesoscale Discussion 536
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0536
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0104 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NERN AR/SERN MO...SRN IL...WRN KY...WRN TN
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 231804Z - 231930Z
   
   FAST MOVING LINE OF STORMS WILL MOVE OUT OF FAR SERN MO/NERN AR AND
   INTO PORTIONS OF SRN IL...WRN KY...AND WRN TN DURING EARLY TO MID
   AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR INCREASING SVR
   WEATHER POTENTIAL AND POSSIBLE WW.
   
   AT 1745Z...LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED SWD OUT OF SERN MO AND
   INTO NERN AR...AND WERE MOVING E AT ROUGHLY 40 KT. THIS ACTIVITY IS
   OCCURRING ADJACENT TO LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING FROM NRN
   AR NEWD ACROSS FAR SRN IL AND SRN IND. PARTIAL CLEARING TAKING PLACE
   AHEAD OF THE LINE HAS AIDED IN BOOSTING SURFACE TEMPERATURES INTO
   THE 70S F...AND IS COINCIDENT WITH AN AXIS OF MID 60S DEWPOINTS.
   RESULTANT BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION IS LEADING TO INCREASING
   MLCAPE VALUES /NEAR 1000 J PER KG/ DEVELOPING NEWD INTO WRN TN/KY.
   FURTHERMORE...THE MO/AR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
   DEEP LAYER OF UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY FLOW...FAVORING SUFFICIENT
   VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FOR A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS. CONVECTIVE
   TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF BOW ECHO
   DEVELOPMENT AND ENHANCED DAMAGING WIND THREAT...AT WHICH POINT A WW
   MAY BECOME NECESSARY.
   
   ..GARNER.. 04/23/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...
   
   LAT...LON   37798706 37048671 36238708 35658824 35508981 35749077
               36909013 37848840 37798706 
   
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Page last modified: April 23, 2011
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