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Mesoscale Discussion 620 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0620
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1045 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR EASTERN LA AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MS
INTO AL
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
VALID 271545Z - 271715Z
A LONG LEAD-TIME/LONG DURATION PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS /PDS/ TORNADO
WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED SOON...MOST CERTAIN ACROSS
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MS.
VISIBLE SATELLITE/SURFACE OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS IMPLY RELATIVELY
QUICK AIRMASS RECOVERY/DESTABILIZATION IS OCCURRING FROM LA INTO
MS/AL THROUGH MID/LATE MORNING. THIS IS THE CASE NOT ONLY FOR IN THE
VICINITY OF EARLY MORNING WEST-EAST OUTFLOW ACROSS MS/AL...WHERE
SURFACE TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS HAVE EACH INCREASED 8-12F OVER THE
PAST 2 HR...BUT ALSO IN THE WAKE OF AN APPARENT WAVE-LIKE FEATURE
SPREADING EASTWARD CROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MS/LA AS A CU FIELD
OTHERWISE CONTINUES TO INCREASE/MATURE ACROSS NORTHEAST LA.
AIDED BY STRONG AMPLIFICATION/INTENSIFICATION OF AN INCREASINGLY
NEGATIVE TILT SHORTWAVE TROUGH/ASSOCIATED JET STREAK LATER TODAY...A
VOLATILE SCENARIO IS EXPECTED TO UNFOLD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
CONVECTIVE INITIATION OF VIGOROUS CONVECTION BY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON
IS WELL SUPPORTED BY EXPERIMENTAL GUIDANCE SUCH AS SEVERAL RECENT
HRRR RUNS AND THE 12Z WRF-NMM. SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM
GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE RUC/12Z NAM...ACCENTUATED BY VERY LONG/STRONGLY
CURVED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...SUPPORT THE NOTION OF SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF STRONG/POTENTIALLY VIOLENT TORNADOES THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGH RISK AREA.
..GUYER.. 04/27/2011
ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN...LIX...
LAT...LON 31159161 32529178 34858972 34838959 34778787 32968780
31678864 31309016 31159161
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