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Mesoscale Discussion 811
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0811
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0112 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SRN KS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 191812Z - 191915Z
   
   CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT HR OR SO
   ACROSS PORTIONS OF S-CNTRL KS. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SUPPORTIVE
   FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES. A
   TORNADO WATCH WILL BE NEEDED SOON.
   
   SFC ANALYSIS FROM 17Z PLACES A SFC LOW 3O MI W P28...WITH AN
   ATTENDANT WARM FRONT BULGING NWD INTO CNTRL KS. STRONG SSELY FLOW
   HAS ADVECTED RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE NWD AS FAR N AS W-CNTRL
   KS...RESULTING IN AN AXIS OF MLCAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 2000 J/KG WITH
   VERY LITTLE CINH. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES TCU FIELD HAS
   DEVELOPED IN RECENT SCANS W OF WICHITA. CONVECTIVE INITIATION
   APPEARS INCREASINGLY LIKELY...AND AS STORMS INTENSIFY...AN
   INCREASING THREAT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP.
   ADDITIONALLY...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW STRONG
   TORNADOES...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT LIKELY IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO
   THE WARM FRONT AS IT PROGRESSES NWD.
   
   ..ROGERS.. 05/19/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...
   
   LAT...LON   37029894 37059974 38429992 38870003 39589979 39769910
               39659782 38719697 37679638 37109675 37029894 
   
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