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Mesoscale Discussion 813
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0813
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0224 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN/E-CNTRL CO...SWRN KS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 191924Z - 192030Z
   
   THE POTENTIAL MAY EXIST FOR A FEW STORMS PRODUCING HAIL /SOME
   POSSIBLY APPROACHING SVR LIMITS/ ACROSS PORTIONS OF SERN/E-CNTRL CO
   AND INTO FAR SWRN KS. DUE TO THE EXPECTED MARGINAL NATURE OF THE
   THREAT...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
   
   RECENT RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THAT A FEW SMALL/LOW-TOPPED
   THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF SERN CO. THESE
   STORMS HAVE LIKELY FORMED IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING MIDLEVEL ASCENT
   ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE-SCALE WRN CONUS UPPER TROUGH. A RESERVOIR OF
   RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AIR IS BEING MAINTAINED AS SFC
   PRESSURE FALLS HAVE OCCURRED IN THE LEE OF THE FRONT RANGE...EWD
   ACROSS E-CNTRL CO AND BACK INTO SWRN KS. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE
   SOMEWHAT COOL FARTHER W /50-60S/...MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7 DEG
   C/KM WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO YIELD MLCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 250-500
   J/KG...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR MARGINALLY SVR HAIL WITH THE
   STRONGEST STORMS. FARTHER E ACROSS SWRN KS...THE THREAT REMAINS MORE
   CONDITIONAL AS CONVECTION HAS STRUGGLED TO INITIATE...BUT IF STORMS
   DEVELOP THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND PERHAPS GUSTY DOWNBURST
   WINDS /OWING TO A WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER AND GREATER DEWPOINT
   DEPRESSIONS/ MAY EXIST.
   
   ..ROGERS.. 05/19/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...
   
   LAT...LON   38030226 37930331 37770454 38020518 38870511 39200460
               39400385 39420256 39370156 38280074 37100071 37030106
               37130166 37730193 38030226 
   
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