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Mesoscale Discussion 814
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0814
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0344 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NW TX...WRN OK...SRN/CNTRL KS
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 308...309...
   
   VALID 192044Z - 192145Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 308...309...CONTINUES.
   
   ...WW 308...NW TX AND WRN OK...
   CONVECTION CONTINUES TO REGENERATE ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY DRYLINE
   /CURRENTLY POSITIONED 60 NNW ABI TO 40 NNE GAG/...WITH SEVERAL OF
   THE STORMS EXHIBITING SIGNIFICANT MIDLEVEL ROTATION AND MULTIPLE
   REPORTS OF LARGE HAIL RECEIVED. NUMEROUS STORM INTERACTIONS HAVE
   ALSO OCCURRED...OWING PRIMARILY TO A SIGNIFICANT ALONG-BOUNDARY
   COMPONENT TO THE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR VECTOR...AND ALSO SEVERAL LEFT
   SPLITTING STORMS QUICKLY ADVANCING NWD. THIS HAS AFFECTED THE
   MAINTENANCE/EVOLUTION OF INDIVIDUAL STORMS...BUT CONTINUED MOIST
   SSELY INFLOW CONTINUES TO ALLOW GENERATION OF NEW STORMS ALONG THE
   DRYLINE. TCU FIELD HAS BECOME MORE AGITATED ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF
   THE WW AREA IN NW TX IN MORE RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES...WITH
   AN UNPERTURBED ENVIRONMENT REMAINING FAVORABLE FOR NEW CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT.
   
   VWP DATA INDICATE SHEARED VERTICAL WIND PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR
   ADDITIONAL STORM/OUTFLOW INTERACTIONS. THE GREATEST TORNADO THREAT
   WILL LIKELY EXIST WITH ANY RIGHT-MOVING SUPERCELLS THAT CAN MAINTAIN
   INTENSITY E OF THE DRYLINE. THE INSTABILITY AXIS REMAINS RELATIVELY
   NARROW AS WELL...WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING OFF INTO THE UPPER 70S
   ACROSS CNTRL OK AND ANY ADDITIONAL WARMING SOMEWHAT INHIBITED BY
   ANVIL CIRRUS SPREADING EWD. THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND
   DMGG DOWNBURST WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE.
   
   ...WW 309...SRN/CNTRL KS...
   DEEP CONVECTION HAS STRUGGLED TO DEVELOP THUS FAR ACROSS MUCH OF THE
   WATCH AREA...WITH MOST TCU FORMING NEAR AND TO THE S OF A NWD
   ADVANCING WARM FRONT. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS FIELDS INDICATE A
   NARROW INSTABILITY AXIS REMAINS POSITIONED ACROSS S-CNTRL KS...WITH
   LITTLE TO NO CINH. THE ENVIRONMENT STILL REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR
   SUPERCELLS /GIVEN EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES AROUND 50 KTS/...AND WITH
   ADDITIONAL HEATING...AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS
   ANTICIPATED. THE GREATEST TORNADO THREAT IS STILL FORECAST TO EXIST
   IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT /WHERE 0-1 KM SRH IS MAXIMIZED/.
   THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER NWRN OK ALONG THE DRYLINE WILL SOON
   ENTER S-CNTRL KS AS WELL.
   
   ..ROGERS.. 05/19/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...SJT...GLD...
   LUB...
   
   LAT...LON   32990049 32970128 34799971 36499994 37199999 39800084
               40220088 40179712 37689670 32999924 32990049 
   
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