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Mesoscale Discussion 868
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0868
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0626 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN OH...WRN/CNTRL WV...ERN KY...WRN VA...WRN
   NC...ERN TN
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 324...333...
   
   VALID 222326Z - 230130Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
   324...333...CONTINUES.
   
   SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION CONTINUES PUSHING
   EWD/ENEWD OUT OF WW324 AND ACROSS WW333. WW324 WILL BE ALLOWED TO
   EXPIRE AT 01Z.
   
   REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROKEN BAND OF CONVECTION EXTENDING
   FROM S-CNTRL OH INTO SRN WV...WITH MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
   ACTIVITY FARTHER SOUTH INTO PORTIONS OF WRN VA...WRN NC...AND ERN
   TN. THE EXPANSIVE COLD POOL DRIVEN BY THIS ACTIVITY WILL PROMOTE ITS
   EWD PROGRESSION DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AUGMENTED BY MODEST
   MID-LEVEL FLOW /WLY 500-MB WINDS AT 25 KT DEPICTED IN CHARLESTON WV
   VWP/. MODERATE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL SUPPORT
   CONTINUED CONVECTIVE REGENERATION...MAINLY PRIOR TO SUNSET.
   THEREAFTER...DECREASING INSTABILITY AND THE LACK OF STRONGER ASCENT
   WILL LARGELY RESULT IN A WANING SVR POTENTIAL. UNTIL
   THEN...TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS OF IN EXCESS OF 20F AHEAD OF THE
   ACTIVITY /OWING TO PRECONVECTIVE MIXING/ WILL SUPPORT STRONG
   DOWNDRAFTS WITH THE THREAT FOR DMGG WINDS...PARTICULARLY WITH ANY
   ORGANIZED BOWING LINE SEGMENTS. ALSO...A FEW OF THE MORE VIGOROUS
   UPDRAFTS...ENHANCED BY EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES OF 25 TO 35
   KT...COULD YIELD A SECONDARY THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL. CONVECTION IS
   NOT FORECAST TO REDEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF ONGOING ACTIVITY DUE TO
   CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING COUPLED WITH ONLY NEUTRAL FORCING FOR ASCENT
   PER RECENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
   
   ..COHEN.. 05/22/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...RNK...PBZ...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...ILN...
   
   LAT...LON   39838159 39558051 38548015 36848046 35668127 35258197
               35078301 35568348 36848308 37788284 38108313 38848309
               39418278 39798222 39838159 
   
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