MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0872
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0720 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IND...SRN LOWER MI...NWRN/W-CNTRL OH
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 332...
   
   VALID 230020Z - 230215Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 332
   CONTINUES.
   
   AN ORGANIZED...LEADING-LINE/TRAILING-STRATIFORM MCS CONTINUES MOVING
   EWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN LOWER MI AND NRN IND. THE NORTH WEBSTER
   IND VWP SAMPLED WLY WINDS AROUND 45 KT NEAR 1 KM AGL ASSOCIATED WITH
   THE REAR-INFLOW JET ATTENDANT TO THE MCS. THIS FEATURE HAS AIDED IN
   PRODUCING DMGG WINDS ACROSS NRN IND...AND A MEASURED SEVERE GUST IN
   KALAMAZOO COUNTY MI. RECENT RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THAT OUTFLOW HAS
   SURGED AHEAD OF PARENT CONVECTION...SUGGESTING THAT THE MCS IS IN
   ITS DECAY STAGE AND WILL EXHIBIT AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND.
   NEVERTHELESS...THE THREAT FOR A FEW DMGG WIND GUSTS COULD CONTINUE
   AS IT TRACKS TOWARD THE ERN EDGE OF THE WW OWING TO DCAPE VALUES IN
   EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG. FARTHER EAST INTO NWRN OH AND SERN LOWER
   MI...THE SVR THREAT WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY REDUCED AS THE BOUNDARY
   LAYER STABILIZES WITH THE LOSS OF PRECONVECTIVE DIABATIC HEATING.
   THUS...AND AN ADDITIONAL WW DOWNSTREAM WILL NOT BE NEEDED.
   
   WHILE A TEMPORARY LULL IN THE SVR THREAT MAY OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF
   THE AFOREMENTIONED MCS...THE SVR THREAT COULD INCREASE THEREAFTER AS
   ADDITIONAL CONVECTION UPSTREAM OVER IL AND WI MOVES INTO THE WW.
   WHILE THE COLD POOL IN THE WAKE OF THE MCS MAY LIMIT THE POTENTIAL
   FOR SFC-BASED STORMS ACROSS NRN IND AND SWRN LOWER MI...UNSTABLE
   PARCELS ORIGINATING FROM THE SFC UPSTREAM /SBCAPE OF 1469 J PER KG
   ACCORDING TO THE CENTRAL ILLINOIS 00Z SOUNDING/ COMBINED WITH
   ADEQUATE DEEP-LAYER WIND SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUING SVR
   POTENTIAL THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE WW.
   
   ..COHEN.. 05/23/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...
   
   LAT...LON   40278446 39978521 39918677 40408748 41648711 43288730
               43558642 43558576 43458487 43208425 42308378 40798414
               40278446