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Mesoscale Discussion 1144 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1144
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0843 PM CDT WED JUN 08 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AND ERN WI...NRN IL...SRN AND ERN IA...
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 440...441...
VALID 090143Z - 090315Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
440...441...CONTINUES.
A SEVERE THREAT CURRENTLY ONGOING IN THE CENTER OF WW 441 WILL MOVE
SEWD INTO NRN IL...FAR SW WI AND INTO FAR ERN IA LATE THIS EVENING.
A WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY EVENTUALLY AFFECT WRN LOWER MI AND FAR NE
IL. WW ISSUANCE MAY BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS WRN LOWER MI LATE THIS
EVENING.
A LINEAR MCS IS ONGOING IN SRN WI SWWD INTO ERN IA LOCATED ALONG AN
AXIS OF STRONG INSTABILITY WITH MESOANALYSIS SHOWING MLCAPE VALUES
OF 2000 TO 3000 J/KG. THE STRONG INSTABILITY ALONG WITH MODERATE
DEEP LAYER SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE 50
TO 75 KT MID-LEVEL JET...WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STRONG UPDRAFT
DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE STRONG INSTABILITY WILL
BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL...THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY MARKEDLY
INCREASE AS A BOWING-LINE SEGMENT CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. THE BOW ECHO SHOULD MOVE ACROSS SRN LAKE MICHIGAN
AND MAY IMPACT WRN LOWER MI LATER THIS EVENING WHERE DESTABILIZATION
HAS ALLOWED MODERATE INSTABILITY TO REDEVELOP.
..BROYLES.. 06/09/2011
ATTN...WFO...APX...GRR...GRB...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...
DMX...
LAT...LON 43838536 44268612 44408810 43708962 42889040 42599080
42189139 41739203 41409317 40709256 40849011 41918710
42768538 43838536
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