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Mesoscale Discussion 1319 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1319
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0104 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL IL/IND
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 201804Z - 201900Z
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON...THOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE INSUFFICIENT TO NECESSITATE A WW
ISSUANCE.
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS HAS GENERALLY LIMITED DESTABILIZATION ACROSS MUCH
OF IL/IND...WITH MODIFIED 12Z AREA SOUNDINGS INDICATING CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION REMAINING...THOUGH THIS MAY BE CLOSE TO BEING OVERCOME.
HOWEVER...AS DIURNAL HEATING CONTINUES...A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION
TO THE WEST WILL ALSO BEGIN TO ADVECT EWD...WITH WARMING LOW LEVEL
TO MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. THEREFORE...ONLY A NARROW WINDOW
WILL EXIST FOR SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION CAPABLE OF DMGG WINDS.
OTHERWISE...A SUBTLE LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT NORTH OF A SERIES OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
ACROSS IL/IND...AND A COLD FRONT ACROSS NWRN IL. GIVEN THE
MAINTENANCE OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES /7.5 TO 8.5 C/KM PER
UPSTREAM 12Z SOUNDINGS AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS/ AND VERY STRONG
WNWLY DEEP LAYER SHEAR...LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ELEVATED
STORMS THAT CAN SUSTAIN A STRONGER UPDRAFT. UPPER RIDGING/SUBSIDENCE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA WILL LIKELY HINDER A MORE WIDESPREAD THREAT.
..HURLBUT.. 06/20/2011
ATTN...WFO...ILN...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX...
LAT...LON 38928811 39568995 40318961 40808817 40718676 40578532
40278488 39548502 39328512 38928811
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