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Mesoscale Discussion 1319
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1319
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0104 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL IL/IND
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 201804Z - 201900Z
   
   ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
   AFTERNOON...THOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE INSUFFICIENT TO NECESSITATE A WW
   ISSUANCE.
   
   CONVECTIVE DEBRIS HAS GENERALLY LIMITED DESTABILIZATION ACROSS MUCH
   OF IL/IND...WITH MODIFIED 12Z AREA SOUNDINGS INDICATING CONVECTIVE
   INHIBITION REMAINING...THOUGH THIS MAY BE CLOSE TO BEING OVERCOME.
   HOWEVER...AS DIURNAL HEATING CONTINUES...A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION
   TO THE WEST WILL ALSO BEGIN TO ADVECT EWD...WITH WARMING LOW LEVEL
   TO MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. THEREFORE...ONLY A NARROW WINDOW
   WILL EXIST FOR SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION CAPABLE OF DMGG WINDS.
   OTHERWISE...A SUBTLE LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL CONTINUE
   TO SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT NORTH OF A SERIES OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
   ACROSS IL/IND...AND A COLD FRONT ACROSS NWRN IL. GIVEN THE
   MAINTENANCE OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES /7.5 TO 8.5 C/KM PER
   UPSTREAM 12Z SOUNDINGS AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS/ AND VERY STRONG
   WNWLY DEEP LAYER SHEAR...LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ELEVATED
   STORMS THAT CAN SUSTAIN A STRONGER UPDRAFT. UPPER RIDGING/SUBSIDENCE
   BUILDING INTO THE AREA WILL LIKELY HINDER A MORE WIDESPREAD THREAT.
   
   ..HURLBUT.. 06/20/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ILN...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX...
   
   LAT...LON   38928811 39568995 40318961 40808817 40718676 40578532
               40278488 39548502 39328512 38928811 
   
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