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Mesoscale Discussion 1329 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1329
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0617 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN NEB...NRN/ERN KS...WRN IA...SERN SD
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 523...524...
VALID 202317Z - 210015Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 523...524...CONTINUES.
NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE FORTHCOMING TO REPLACE PARTS OF WW 523/524 AND
TO INCLUDE PORTIONS OF SERN SD/NWRN IA.
GREATEST TORNADO THREAT SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CNTRL/E-CNTRL NEB N/E OF PRIMARY SURFACE CYCLONE NEAR GRI...EVOLVING
E/NEWD THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ENLARGED HODOGRAPHS /SAMPLED BY
OMAHA VWP/ HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO 0-1 KM SRH AOA 200 M2/S2 AMIDST A
STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS
AND POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES.
FARTHER SW...TSTM CLUSTER HAS REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY INVOF PIVOT
POINT OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS OVER NWRN KS. TORNADO THREAT SHOULD
GRADUALLY DIMINISH HERE AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES EWD.
STRONG LINEAR FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE N/S-ORIENTED SURFACE COLD
FRONT AND S/SWLY DEEP-LAYER FLOW HAVE RESULTED IN VIGOROUS UPSCALE
GROWTH AND INCIPIENT QLCS FORMATION ACROSS PORTIONS CNTRL/ERN KS. AS
MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX SHIFTS E/NEWD THIS EVENING AND SURFACE COLD POOL
STRENGTHENS...EMBEDDED LEWPS/BOWING STRUCTURES APPEAR LIKELY TO
DEVELOP...ENHANCING THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS ERN KS/FAR
SERN NEB TOWARDS THE MO RIVER VALLEY.
..GRAMS.. 06/20/2011
ATTN...WFO...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...LBF...
DDC...GLD...
LAT...LON 39040003 39020044 39200075 40040076 40850029 42239922
42909824 43079685 42729615 40959549 39169529 37029567
36959777 38309737 39999759 40689816 40649881 39040003
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