MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1449
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1257 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/SERN WY...CNTRL/NCNTRL/NERN CO...NEB PNHDL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 301757Z - 301900Z
   
   STRONG-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL
   BE LIKELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  STORMS WILL SPREAD ENE FROM SCNTRL
   WY AND WRN CO TO THE HIGH PLAINS BY MID-AFTERNOON AND A WEATHER
   WATCH WILL BE LIKELY...GREATER THAN 80 PERCENT FOR PARTS OF THE
   AREA.
   
   STRONG PV-ANOMALY WAS CENTERED OVER SCNTRL UT AT 18Z AND WILL MOVE
   INTO WRN CO THIS AFTERNOON.  STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SPREADING
   DOWNSTREAM TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS COUPLED WITH VERY STEEP LAPSE
   RATES AND 1000 J/KG MLCAPES WILL LIKELY AID IN MAINTENANCE AND
   FORMATION OF TSTMS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA THIS AFTERNOON.  
   
   DEEP SWLY TROPOSPHERIC FLOW ALONG BASE OF THE SYSTEM /50-60 KTS AT
   500 MB/ WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THE HIGH-BASED STORMS TO BOW WITH
   DAMAGING WINDS A THREAT.  HOWEVER...DIURNAL UPSLOPE FLOW EAST OF THE
   DIVIDE WILL ACT TO ENHANCE THE VERTICAL SHEAR AND
   LONGER-LIVED...HIGH-BASED SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SERN
   WY...NEB PNHDL AND NERN CO AMID SLIGHTLY STRONGER BUOYANCY/LOW-LEVEL
   MOISTURE.  HERE...LARGE HAIL WILL BE AN ADDITIONAL THREAT BEFORE
   COLD POOLS BEGIN TO DOMINATE.
   
   ..RACY.. 06/30/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LBF...PUB...BOU...CYS...RIW...GJT...
   
   LAT...LON   38240722 40360687 40850686 41050707 41160898 41430924
               41860939 42330836 42800675 43280542 43090438 42660359
               42310281 41710243 40890316 39370470 38410571 38240722