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Mesoscale Discussion 1449 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1449
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1257 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/SERN WY...CNTRL/NCNTRL/NERN CO...NEB PNHDL
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 301757Z - 301900Z
STRONG-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL
BE LIKELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL SPREAD ENE FROM SCNTRL
WY AND WRN CO TO THE HIGH PLAINS BY MID-AFTERNOON AND A WEATHER
WATCH WILL BE LIKELY...GREATER THAN 80 PERCENT FOR PARTS OF THE
AREA.
STRONG PV-ANOMALY WAS CENTERED OVER SCNTRL UT AT 18Z AND WILL MOVE
INTO WRN CO THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SPREADING
DOWNSTREAM TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS COUPLED WITH VERY STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND 1000 J/KG MLCAPES WILL LIKELY AID IN MAINTENANCE AND
FORMATION OF TSTMS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
DEEP SWLY TROPOSPHERIC FLOW ALONG BASE OF THE SYSTEM /50-60 KTS AT
500 MB/ WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THE HIGH-BASED STORMS TO BOW WITH
DAMAGING WINDS A THREAT. HOWEVER...DIURNAL UPSLOPE FLOW EAST OF THE
DIVIDE WILL ACT TO ENHANCE THE VERTICAL SHEAR AND
LONGER-LIVED...HIGH-BASED SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SERN
WY...NEB PNHDL AND NERN CO AMID SLIGHTLY STRONGER BUOYANCY/LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE. HERE...LARGE HAIL WILL BE AN ADDITIONAL THREAT BEFORE
COLD POOLS BEGIN TO DOMINATE.
..RACY.. 06/30/2011
ATTN...WFO...LBF...PUB...BOU...CYS...RIW...GJT...
LAT...LON 38240722 40360687 40850686 41050707 41160898 41430924
41860939 42330836 42800675 43280542 43090438 42660359
42310281 41710243 40890316 39370470 38410571 38240722
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