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Mesoscale Discussion 1964
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MD 1964 graphic
   
   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1964
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1233 PM CDT SAT AUG 13 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC...ERN VA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 131733Z - 131930Z
   
   SPORADIC INSTANCES OF DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
   AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC. HOWEVER...THE LIMITED
   SPATIAL EXTENT OF THE SVR THREAT AND LACK OF STORM ORGANIZATION WILL
   PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW.
   
   REGIONAL VWP DATA SUGGEST CONFLUENT SSELY-SWLY FLOW WITHIN THE
   1-1.5-KM-AGL LAYER ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND VA...NORTH OF A REMNANT
   FRONTAL ZONE DRAPED ACROSS THE SERN STATES. THIS
   CONFLUENCE...COUPLED WITH AMPLE DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE /I.E. PWAT
   VALUES GENERALLY AOA 1.6 INCHES PER GPS PW DATA/ AND A MARGINALLY TO
   MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS...HAVE FOSTERED THE DEVELOPMENT OF
   SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS ERN SECTIONS OF CNTRL
   NC...WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY EXTENDING INTO THE ERN HALF OF VA.
   MEAN SWLY FLOW OF 20-25 KT THROUGH THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER PER
   RALEIGH/MOREHEAD CITY/WAKEFIELD VWP DATA SUGGEST THAT CURRENT
   ACTIVITY WILL BE STEERED TOWARD THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD THROUGH THE
   AFTERNOON. THE DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS ACROSS ERN VA/NC IS FORECAST TO
   CONTINUE DESTABILIZING AS RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES REVEAL
   NUMEROUS POCKETS OF ONGOING INSOLATION. THIS WILL SERVE TO STEEPEN
   LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INCREASE DCAPE VALUES /REACHING AROUND 800
   J PER KG IN SOME AREAS/. THIS WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR WET
   MICROBURSTS WITH PULSE TO OCCASIONAL MULTICELLULAR CONVECTION GIVEN
   EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES AROUND 20 KT. HOWEVER...WEAK
   MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH NEARLY SATURATED ADIABATIC
   THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES PER NAM/RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS WILL
   SUBSTANTIALLY REDUCE THE THREAT FOR MORE VIGOROUS CONVECTION AND
   LARGE HAIL.
   
   ..COHEN.. 08/13/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...
   
   LAT...LON   36497576 35807554 35037575 34377705 34427805 34697851
               35217893 35777886 37397822 38067687 36497576 
   
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