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Mesoscale Discussion 1965
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MD 1965 graphic
   
   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1965
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0107 PM CDT SAT AUG 13 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN PA...MUCH OF MD/DE...FAR SWRN NJ...ERN WV
   PANHANDLE...NERN VA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 131807Z - 132000Z
   
   STORMS THIS AFTERNOON COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS. ANY SVR THREAT IS
   EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED...AND THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS UNLIKELY.
   
   LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRAWN NWD ACROSS THE MID
   ATLANTIC AHEAD OF A PROGRESSIVE...COMPACT MID-LEVEL VORT MAX
   /CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER FAR NERN IA/. MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD
   OF THIS FEATURE...COMBINED WITH A LEAD IMPULSE OVER THE ERN OHIO
   VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION...WILL CONTINUE TO FOSTER THE
   DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION THROUGH THE
   AFTERNOON. MODIFICATIONS TO THE OBSERVED 12Z STERLING VA SOUNDING
   FOR CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT MLCAPE VALUES HAVE INCREASED
   TO 500-1000 J/KG. SOME ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION IS POSSIBLE INTO
   THE AFTERNOON...AS BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS INCREASE. MODEST WSWLY
   FLOW IN THE MID-LEVELS IS CONTRIBUTING TO EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
   MAGNITUDES OF 20 TO 30 KT. THESE FACTORS WILL SUPPORT OCCASIONALLY
   ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES...WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR GUSTY SFC
   WINDS. WHILE ONE OR TWO INSTANCES OF DMGG WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED
   OUT WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS...WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND
   RELATIVELY HIGH CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL LIKELY CURTAIL THE DEGREE
   OF DESTABILIZATION AND THE OVERALL SVR THREAT.
   
   ..COHEN.. 08/13/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX...
   
   LAT...LON   40797573 39297536 38187584 38077779 38727884 40047890
               41267809 41517655 40797573 
   
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