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Mesoscale Discussion 1968
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1968
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0320 PM CDT SAT AUG 13 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN WV...WRN VA...WRN NC...CNTRL/WRN SC...ERN
   GA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 132020Z - 132215Z
   
   ISOLATED STORMS COULD PRODUCE DMGG WIND GUSTS INTO THE LATE
   AFTERNOON HOURS. THE LACK OF CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AND ISOLATED
   NATURE OF THE SVR THREAT SHOULD PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW.
   
   THE AIR MASS ACROSS MUCH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA HAS BECOME
   MODERATELY UNSTABLE /I.E. MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-2500 J PER KG/ OWING
   TO SUFFICIENT HEATING AMIDST RICH BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE -- SFC
   DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S. OROGRAPHIC ASCENT OVER
   THE CNTRL/SRN APPALACHIANS...COMBINED WITH WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE
   ALONG A REMNANT FRONT AND ATTENDANT SFC LOW OVER NRN/ERN GA AND SRN
   SC...HAS SUPPORTED THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS
   AFTERNOON. FURTHERMORE...THE GLANCING INFLUENCE OF A SUBTLE
   MID-LEVEL IMPULSE SWINGING THROUGH ERN KY...EVIDENT IN RECENT WATER
   VAPOR IMAGERY...COULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT ASCENT FOR AN INCREASE IN
   CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF SWRN VA AND FAR SERN WV BETWEEN
   21-00Z. WITH THE STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW DISPLACED TO THE NW OF THE
   REGION...EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES AOB 20 KT WILL MAINTAIN
   PRIMARILY A PULSE CONVECTIVE MODE. AS STORMS COLLAPSE...A THREAT FOR
   WET MICROBURSTS PRODUCING DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST ON AN ISOLATED
   BASIS GIVEN DCAPE VALUES AOA 900 J/KG. HOWEVER...THE LACK OF
   STRONGER VERTICAL SHEAR / FORCING WILL LARGELY PREVENT CONVECTION
   FROM EXHIBITING MORE ORGANIZED ATTRIBUTES OR PERSISTENCE. STORMS
   WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AFTER 00Z AS DIABATIC HEATING WANES.
   
   ..COHEN.. 08/13/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...RNK...CHS...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC...
   
   LAT...LON   34967982 33758005 32778099 32548216 33128355 34818326
               35618217 36428165 37258130 37868041 37797951 36777912
               34967982 
   
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