MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0521
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0942 AM CDT SAT APR 14 2012
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...TX/OK PANHANDLES...WRN OK...SWRN KS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 141442Z - 141615Z
   
   CONVECTIVE INITIATION MAY BE UNDERWAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN/CNTRL
   HIGH PLAINS. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED DURING THE NEXT FEW
   HOURS...AND A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR THE TX/OK
   PANHANDLES...WRN OK...AND SWRN KS IF THE THREAT FOR DEEPENING
   CONVECTION ACTUALLY MATERIALIZES.
   
   RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP INDICATES A ZONE OF TOWERING CUMULUS
   EVOLVING FROM FAR SWRN KS SSWWD INTO THE CNTRL TX PANHANDLE. THIS
   ZONE ALIGNS WITH A RIBBON OF INFERRED ASCENT PER RECENT WATER VAPOR
   IMAGERY. THE 12Z AMARILLO RAOB MODIFIED FOR CURRENT SFC OBS
   INDICATES THAT INHIBITION FOR A SURFACE-BASED PARCEL HAS ALMOST
   COMPLETELY ERODED OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLES...PARTICULARLY IN
   POCKETS OF INSOLATION. FARTHER NORTH INTO SWRN KS -- I.E. NORTH OF
   THE TRACK OF ASCENT ATTENDANT TO A PRIOR SUBTLE IMPULSE -- THE CAP
   IS MUCH MORE STOUT PER DODGE CITY 12Z RAOB. REGARDLESS...CONTINUED
   SFC HEATING WILL LIKELY RESULT IN STRONG DESTABILIZATION AND
   DECREASING INHIBITION THROUGH THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY
   AFTERNOON EAST OF A SHARPENING DRYLINE/FRONT...AND CONVECTIVE
   INITIATION MAY BE IMMINENT. ALSO OF NOTE...DETERMINISTIC MODEL QPF
   FIELDS HAVE STRUGGLED GREATLY WITH REGARDS TO REPRESENTING THE
   CURRENT SCENARIO...AND LIKELY ARE NOT RESOLVING SUBTLE FORCING FOR
   ASCENT THAT WILL PLAY A KEY ROLE IN SUPPORTING THE INITIATION.
   STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR YIELDING EFFECTIVE SRH IN EXCESS OF 300
   M2/S2...MAINTAINED BY BACKED SFC WINDS...WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR
   TORNADOES...WHILE VERY LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
   WITH SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.
   
   ..COHEN.. 04/14/2012
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...GLD...LUB...AMA...
   
   LAT...LON   37660167 38810114 39030029 38769945 37969943 37449946
               36509931 35199941 34430029 34460143 35200229 36890190
               37660167